Last week’s referendums show Ireland and the UK have something in common: a gap in the market for mainstream conservative politics – mainstream, certainly, as the public perceives it.
The results are not a swing to the right but a scolding to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for drifting away from conventional centre-right concerns.
The principal concerns of the British public, according to pollsters YouGov, are the economy, health, immigration, the environment, housing, defence and crime, in that order. The Conservative Party is usually seen as the natural leader on all these issues, except health. Even the environment is viewed through a Tory lens of conservation. The Conservative government has so evidently failed on these issues that British voters are looking to Labour as the only alternative, in effect turning left in the hope of better delivery on the right.
British voters are not turning far-right. Concern about immigration has halved since the Brexit referendum, amid historically unprecedented levels of immigration. Concern began rising only last October, coinciding with protests over the Israel-Gaza conflict. This reflects dismay at a perceived failure of integration.
Culture-war issues barely register in opinion polls, despite arguments about gender identity, for example, dominating media and political debate. Only 6 per cent of YouGov respondents mentioned the broad category of “family life and childcare”, where some traditional social values might be invoked. In an Ipsos survey last November, two-thirds of respondents felt politicians “invent or exaggerate” culture-war issues as a distraction. Only 1 per cent said these issues would be a factor in their vote.
The true culture-war divide in the UK is public exasperation with the trivia that obsesses the political class. People might find it laughable that Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, cannot define a woman, but nor are they impressed by political opponents and journalists demanding he do so.
The Tories have earned contempt for their anti-woke posturing, not least because it follows 14 years of progressive posturing while in power. Labour is sincerely progressive, however, so by turning to it the electorate is once again turning left to turn right.
On paper, this paradox creates space for a new right-wing party. Reform UK, a recent rebrand of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, did better than expected in byelections last month, taking 10 per cent and 13 per cent in two previously safe Tory seats, although on low turnouts. In council elections last year it averaged 6 per cent in the wards where it stood.
An Irish electorate in rebellious mood can turn only to Sinn Féin, although that is also turning left to turn right
Reform UK owes some of its branding to Donald Trump. It campaigns to “make Britain great again” and “stop all the woke nonsense”. Yet it still lists its priorities as the economy, energy security and public-sector reform.
In any case, Westminster’s first-past-the-post system makes it extraordinarily difficult for a new party to break through. Reform UK’s best chance of making an impact is a Tory over-reaction. Farage’s first party, Ukip, had only two MPs at its brief peak but this still panicked the Conservatives into holding the Brexit referendum.
The presumption must be that an incoming Labour government will stick closely to the political centre, while the Conservatives fall apart then slowly rebuild themselves as a competent centrist alternative. That is what happened after they last plunged to defeat in 1997.
The British press has drawn parallels between Ireland’s referendum results and public frustration with politics in the UK.
“Most people in Ireland probably” agreed with the sentiments behind the proposed constitutional changes, reckoned the Daily Telegraph, but “people don’t like being told what to think by their political and cultural elites”.
“Labour should tremble,” added its columnist Tim Stanley. “There’s zero patience for performative woke nonsense.”
But woke Labour is still heading for a landslide. Similarly, an Irish electorate in rebellious mood can turn only to Sinn Féin, although that is also turning left to turn right.
This paradox will hardly be resolved by the emergence of a major far-right party.
Instead, Sinn Féin will equivocate on immigration and accelerate its transformation into the new Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will seek firmer centre ground, while trying not to step on each other’s toes.
The difference with Britain is that Fine Gael has not presided over Tory-scale national mismanagement. It has annoyed the electorate with gesture politics it can easily put behind it. Fine Gael could return to Leo Varadkar’s original promise of a party for those who get up early in the morning, and forget about winning the approval of people who thought this was an outrage.
It is a little early to be panicking about a rise of right-wing populism in the UK or Ireland. Both countries are centre-right by default. All it will take to keep them that way is for mainstream conservative parties to regain their focus on the public’s real and entirely reasonable concerns.