Does Kamala Harris have what it takes? That is now the most important question in what will surely go down as one of the craziest presidential races in American history. Just a month ago, we were headed for a familiar rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Since then, the former was nearly assassinated. The latter, following a disastrous debate performance in which he struggled to form coherent sentences, has stepped out of the race.
Harris secured the delegates needed to succeed Biden in a manner that resembles how our own Harris – Simon – succeeded Leo Varadkar earlier this year. She so quickly won the endorsements of party leaders that she scared away any competitors. But whereas this did not cost Simon Harris any legitimacy, in the US presidential system, Kamala’s ascension by acclamation may seem undemocratic. In an anti-elitist age, winning power with the backing of party elders and big donors is no plus.
A more open nomination process would have been better. Democratic contests for choosing presidential candidates have been critical to identifying political talent. The Democrats’ two most charismatic and successful leaders – Bill Clinton and Barack Obama – were chosen only because they emerged through competitive primaries. Neither was favoured to be nominated beforehand.
Moreover, an open process would have allowed Harris to prove herself. And she is unproven. She has never won a competitive national election. Her only challenging win was as District Attorney for San Francisco. That was 20 years ago. She used that post to ascend the ranks from California Attorney General to the US Senate. In deep blue California, having the Democratic Party’s endorsement meant an easy path to election. The one time she ran a national campaign, in the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary, she flopped. Despite seeming to be a compelling candidate on paper, she withdrew from the race before the voting even began.
Harris has an opportunity to regain the votes of many Democrats who are disgusted with Biden’s support for Israeli war crimes in Gaza. To do so, she must clearly distance herself from Biden’s policy
It is unlikely that Biden would have chosen Harris as his running mate had she run a better campaign in 2020. He did not want a rival in the vice-presidency who might challenge him for a second term. The vice-presidency is a famously difficult role with a lot of visibility but less actual power. Even so, Harris won little praise in her first couple of years in the role. Disarray and disorganisation among her staff concerned many. Some wondered whether Biden should replace her as vice-president on his 2024 ticket.
Harris may well make a strong candidate. Most observers agree that she began to hit her stride halfway through her vice-presidency. After the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, for example, she became a very effective advocate for reproductive rights. There are many examples throughout history of leaders who rose to the occasion when power was thrust upon them. When John F Kennedy was assassinated, no one envisioned Lyndon Johnson becoming such an effective advocate for civil rights and for expanding social welfare.
Harris is a charismatic speaker who will be able to unite and rally the Democrats behind her. Already she has re-energised the flagging Democratic campaign. Unlike other possible candidates, she inherits the financial resources of the Biden-Harris campaign. She can draw from a talented range of staffers – so long as she is able to pick people whom she trusts and empower them to organise her campaign.
Harris may lose some Biden voters, particularly older, white voters who were traditionally Republican but hated Trump and found the moderate Biden palatable. They will be less likely to vote for a black woman. After all, if it were not for sexism among many American voters, Hillary Clinton would have become America’s first woman president. (Clinton also ran a terrible campaign.)
But Harris is also well positioned to win back key Democratic constituencies with whom Biden struggled. As an African American and Asian American, she may appeal more strongly to voters of colour. Her support for reproductive rights will make her popular among most women. And she has an opportunity to regain the votes of many Democrats who are disgusted with Biden’s support for Israeli war crimes in Gaza. To do so, she must clearly distance herself from Biden’s policy; something Hubert Humphrey notably failed to do on Vietnam when running in Johnson’s stead in 1968. Harris should not choose Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate because his vocal support for Israel’s war would reopen divisions within the Democrats.
Despite the confidence displayed at the Republican Convention, Trump is very beatable. He remains an unpopular figure with most Americans. Harris can win by shifting the attention back on to Trump. Her past experience as a prosecutor makes her a good figure to press the case against the first convicted felon to run for President.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about the 2024 race has been how little it has changed. Trump was convicted of a felony, he was nearly assassinated. Biden had a terrible debate, he dropped out of the race. And yet the polls have barely budged. The reason for this turbulent paralysis is that the country is divided between two roughly equal camps. The Democrats are slightly bigger, but their advantage is cancelled out by the electoral system that favours Republicans. The election thus seems destined to come down to a handful of votes. Whether or not Harris makes a good candidate may only shift the needle a little bit, but in a close election, that could make all the difference. Those who wish to protect America’s fragile democracy from the threat of Trumpism hope she rises to the occasion.
Daniel Geary is Mark Pigott Associate Professor in American History at Trinity College Dublin
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