Foregone conclusions about the general election are premature. Sinn Féin may be in the doghouse politically, but the election will end up being about the issues that concern people. It is fair to say the world has changed since February 2020 when we last voted for a government, but what concerned voters most then remain pressing issues still. House prices are inflating at over 10 per cent annually and rents are rising at 7 per cent. Nationally, that is an average rent of €1,922. Cost of living, health and immigration are important issues too.
Public interest in the Government’s retelling of its own achievements or Sinn Féin’s failings pale in comparison with voters’ concern about their own interests. What will ultimately make houses more affordable is when wages increase faster than house prices, and there is no prospect of that happening soon.
We are certainly building more houses but are still running to catch up. Median annual earnings in 2020 were just over €40,000. Last year they were over €43,000. The median price for a house now is €345,000. In 2020 it was €260,000. Affordability to buy has gone backwards and rents have gone up. In truth the Government has done a lot on housing but it just hasn’t run fast enough to even stand still.
One issue that has not been put through the sieve of public interrogation is the suite of promises on the delivery of new houses. We are building about 33,000 per year according to the ESRI, which is what is provided for in existing capital budgets. We need about 50,000 homes according to the same body, something the Taoiseach pre-empted in his ardfheis speech in April. He recently talked loosely about 60,000 new homes per year. That kind of upscaling requires money and capacity that currently does not exist.
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Then there is the underlying infrastructure that every home requires. Within those global targets there must be provision for additional social and affordable housing, not provided for in the National Development Plan, but which would require additional funding with knock-on budgetary implications.
And then there is the dearth of key workers from planners to plumbers. The one body that has not yet committed to any new targets is the Department of Housing, and it is not clear if it will before the election. If the Minister for Housing won’t sign up for higher numbers that leaves the Taoiseach’s permutations swinging in the wind.
Another issue for voters is the cost of living. The big picture is positive, and we now have the lowest level of inflation in three years. Wages increases will overtake the price increases baked in over years of high inflation but it takes time. Real wages are growing this year by 2.2 per cent for the first time in two years. But sentiment lags behind the statistics, and that is politically important, because inflation eats confidence. Here again the Government is playing catch-up. The splurge of payments on child benefit, energy credits and more before Christmas is intended as an analgesic.
The Democrats in the United States have been badly hurt by inflation. Yesterday’s Financial Times poll shows that Donald Trump has narrowly overtaken Kamala Harris as the candidate Americans trust with the economy. What will matter here is the contest of ideas and the credibility of the parties on the issues during the campaign.
We can predict some issues that will decide our election but not all. In 2020 the increase in age of eligibility for the old-age pension was ignited by Labour, but all the advantage of its opportunism went to Sinn Féin. It contributed significantly to the eventual outcome. So too did the lack of credibility on housing from Fine Gael in government or Fianna Fáil in opposition.
And of course a backdrop for the election will be the outcome of the American election on November 5th. The main artery of our economy runs through Washington. Political division there has served us well for a long time and long may it continue.
Then there are the self-inflicted wounds and unflattering insights into Sinn Féin caused by current controversies. This matters because a diminished opposition means less choice for the electorate. But I caution against an assumption that because Sinn Féin is starting off on the back foot the Government parties are over the line. If the unspeakable (to some) prospect of a Sinn Féin-led government is not imminent, what is the imperative of voting for the Fianna Fáil–Fine Gael duopoly for which there is as much indifference as enthusiasm? To misquote a former leader of the Progressive Democrats, “two-party government? NO thanks!” could be a convenient slogan and political direction for sceptical voters.