Verona Murphy is now the face of political change. The derision from the politically pious on what passes for an Irish left only draws attention to those opponents’ own ineptitude. This election saw an unloved government returned with fewer votes but, critically, the support of some Independents. There was a political market for an alternative government, but none could be found. Instead, voters who were unenthusiastic about the status quo rejected its potential replacement. That was a sight unseen since 2007 when, determined to be rid of Fianna Fáil, voters scrutinised Fine Gael, found it wanting and relapsed back to the devil they knew.
It is an open question whether getting Murphy into the Ceann Comhairle’s chair on Wednesday was the chief sign of Michael Lowry’s political astuteness or if it was his moving her on from the Regional Group of Independents, who will most likely support the next government without her. She would have been the most ambitious for a cabinet seat, least able to please without one, and less certain to stay the course than others. In any event, the arrangement reached suits everyone. For now, with Murphy safely placed in the high chair, her former colleagues on the Independent benches are in the driving seat.
The bigger picture is that this general election was of secondary importance. There was no binary choice, and ultimately no contest. The two main Government parties marginally lost votes, and Sinn Féin decisively so. Its relief at the end of the campaign was palpable as a much worse outcome for the party, which had seemed inevitable, was avoided.
Ruth Coppinger’s decision to abstain on Mary Lou McDonald’s nomination for taoiseach was telling. Regardless of any alliance they might end up part of, Sinn Féin is a fake left party that has shifted to the right in both North and South. Its assumption of an automatic endorsement from the very few who are in any real sense left is unfounded. The party’s electoral offering was to funnel left-wing votes towards some sort of sloppy centrism, probably with Fianna Fáil. An internal culture that is now as useful as a Dad’s-Army discipline saw Sinn Féin repeatedly mishandle internal issues. Even if the worst was avoided, it was never an alternative government.
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We are about to begin an extraordinary novelty in Irish government. Other than in 2016-2020, we have never had a coalition without Progressive Democrats, Labour or Greens. From 2016 to 2020 there were three Independent ministers who exercised considerable influence. In addition, under confidence and supply, Fianna Fáil was both on the outside and a main actor on the inside. What is coming now is fundamentally different.
Those smaller parties were disproportionately important in driving policy. They were essential to the larger parties in largely taking the blame for unpopular decisions. Now Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, essentially separate factions rather than different parties, have nobody to blame. That is a problem for them. The problem for us is that in a state of near political exhaustion, and ideological apathy, it is unclear what they stand for, or where they want to go. Certainly, their election manifestos are no guide. It was simply an offer to voters of double or quits, and we have made our decision on that.
Since 1989, ideological difference has largely been provided by the smaller parties, who were partners in the wider processes of government and shared in the spoils of office. At their best (and they sometimes were) Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael provided restraint and a cadre of competent ministers who delivered on policies. They had dense national networks of supporters, affiliates and hangers-on that was, by western democratic standards, an extraordinary ecosystem. When the tide went out for one, it came in for the other. Now the political equivalent of global warming sees them huddled for survival on the same melting glacier, and for the first time ever, they are virtually alone.
This is not just a degree of difference from what went before. It marks a fundamental difference in how they interact in what is a new environment. With no third party to disproportionately set the agenda or take the blame, parting as good friends at the end will be more challenging. The lack of triangulation within government may avoid some squabbles but it could just as easily mean that one is now the only available whipping boy for the other.
Fianna Fáil never had much ideological baggage. It was always the practical party of getting stuff done. Fine Gael’s reinvention first under Leo Varadkar but more rapidly under Simon Harris as a digital cartoon of Fianna Fáil is a stunning mistake. Their progress together has reached a logical juncture. Not united, but virtually alone in government, with nobody to blame except each other, they must take full responsibility for what comes next.