Opinion

Tough choices must be made on the climate crisis

State is projected to miss emissions targets by 2030, risking €20bn fine despite solid progress on renewables and reducing carbon

Our future offshore energy plans may at times deliver electricity surplus to our island’s energy needs. But this is unlikely until after 2030. Photograph: Jorge Guerrero/AFP/Getty
Our future offshore energy plans may at times deliver electricity surplus to our island’s energy needs. But this is unlikely until after 2030. Photograph: Jorge Guerrero/AFP/Getty
William Walsh
Tue Jan 28 2025 - 05:31

Ireland has some tough choices to make when it comes to our energy use. If we are to reach, or even come close to, our greenhouse gas emission targets, we need to rapidly increase the decarbonisation of our energy systems, reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, boost energy efficiency efforts and take advantage of the economic opportunities presented by the clean energy transition.

The Programme for Government promises a number of positive actions, committing to ramped-up retrofit targets, prioritising district heating roll-out and accelerating the realisation of our offshore wind potential. But commitments alone will not be enough.

Global analysis by the International Energy Agency put hard numbers on the challenge: it found that meeting international climate targets was possible – but only with a tripling of renewables deployment and a doubling of energy efficiency.

Ireland has made notable progress in recent years, with record reductions in our national emissions, record levels of renewables on the electricity grid and a year-on-year surge in home energy upgrades under the last government.

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Despite this we are still projected to fall short of our legally binding national and EU obligations for 2030. This would incur fines of up to €20 billion, as recently estimated by the Fiscal Advisory Council.

These fines are avoidable – and the €20 billion is far better spent on future-proofing our economy to take advantage of the economic dividend of sustainable energy – but only if we act now and do so decisively.

As a society, we must identify our collective priorities, values and vision for the future of Ireland.

In addition to greater technology deployment across all sectors to help in the energy transition, we must also embrace measures that seek to meet our societal needs at a reduced rate of consumption.

We must build a policy environment that focuses on sufficiency and avoids overconsumption. We must invest in infrastructure that secures our energy independence and supports people to live more energy-efficient lifestyles. This means investing in our electricity grid and accelerating the roll-out of renewables.

We must be prepared to disincentivise consumer behaviours that incur wasteful energy use

We must also move people to low-carbon sources of heating. This means substantial infrastructure development in the form of district heating networks in cities and towns across Ireland. And we must be prepared to disincentivise consumer behaviours that incur wasteful energy use. Finally, we must limit the establishment of new large-energy-users in Ireland between now and 2030.

Data centres are a very real example of the complex decisions that we all need to be cognisant of. The growth in their energy demand is outpacing our ability to install renewable technologies, putting achievement of our climate targets at risk.

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Our future offshore energy plans may at times deliver electricity surplus to our island’s energy needs, creating a significant economic opportunity. But this is unlikely until after 2030.

So, what industry base can we service with that generated power? Data centres could be the answer, but timing is critical when it comes to our climate obligations.

Balancing this delicate supply-demand challenge in the short term presents issues; their economic potential cannot be viewed in isolation from their climate impact and the threat of a €20 billion fine. Brave choices must be made.

A solar-power farm near Herald, California, is helping to reduce the energy sector's emissions. Photograph: Loren Elliott/The New York Times
A solar-power farm near Herald, California, is helping to reduce the energy sector's emissions. Photograph: Loren Elliott/The New York Times

In the past five years, we have made significant progress in our emissions reduction, but we still need to dramatically increase the rate of change to meet our targets.

That will require bold decisions and political will by the incoming Government, which must recognise and incentivise take-up of the economic opportunities presented by sustainable energy in all its guises. Other priorities must be to make the Irish public sector the first sector to achieve net-zero emissions.

The Government must also be willing to regulate the largest emitters and hold them responsible for their climate impacts, support small businesses to be efficient and cheaper to run and support communities and individuals, especially those least able to afford the cost of the transition, to make the rapid shift to energy efficient and renewable energy technologies.

Ireland’s energy challenge cannot be solved without a combination of hard policy solutions and individual actions.

William Walsh is CEO of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland