Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s speech to an Ireland’s Future conference in Belfast’s SSE Arena last June seems a long time ago for those interested in the subject of Irish unity, especially the planning needed to prepare for the challenges it would pose. Back then, Varadkar said the next Irish government must work “actively” for unity and that it should strive to see that “a long-standing aspiration towards unification becomes a political objective”.
Such sentiments were followed by a slew of election manifestos in the Republic, nearly all carrying changes of language, or emphasis – some significant, some minor – welcomed by those who favour the beginning of serious thought on unity.
Besides Sinn Féin, Labour went furthest, setting the creation of a department of unity in Dublin as one of its demands, though subsequently, it ruled itself out from the coalition negotiations practically from the off.
Perhaps because it had to since Varadkar had used the word, Fine Gael said it is “committed to unification as our objective”, while Fianna Fáil, predictably, emphasised the Shared Island Unit – the much-prized creation of its leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Since then, however, matters have receded, argue those who want action. The programme for government mentions only its commitment to “the unity of the people”, not the creation of a united state, a drift from the usually accepted theology.
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Such theology matters, especially after Simon Harris’s words in Stormont last month that a united Ireland “is not a priority” for him and that a referendum is not likely in this decade.
Harris’s words will have surprised few. “Simon is not interested in this, period,” said one party colleague. However, his words have been seized on in some unionist quarters happy with evidence of southern disinterest.
Equally, the decision of Martin and Harris not to find a place on the Taoiseach’s Seanad nominees list for a Northern representative has been noted across the Border and poorly received. Strikingly so, because so much of it is said quietly.
Little of this has happened by accident. During the programme for government negotiations, there was an aversion displayed by some involved to talk between themselves, let alone outside, about Northern Ireland, unity, or preparations.
“No one’s talking about it. Not only that, there’s a judgment that voters want politicians to focus on housing, immigration, and they don’t want to talk about airy-fairy constitutional stuff, as they see it. Look at last year’s referendums,” said one.
This, of course, clashes with the repeated declarations of support given by a majority of voters in the Republic on the question of unity itself, where 64 per cent said they would vote for it now if asked, and even more so, for a desire for planning now.
Such contradictions, or worse, hypocrisies, are well understood by politicians: “Look at how many in the South would favour presidential voting rights for Northerners? Few of them. There’s nothing new in people saying one thing, and doing another,” said one, drily.
Little of this will surprise Martin, who has no appetite for a conversation focused on unity when he wants it centred on improving ties between North and South, and on improving cross-community relations north of the Border.
For now, those in his party unhappy with him due to his attitude to unification – and they are not few, even if they are quiet – accept that they have little scope to challenge him.
They, and others, note that Martin favoured looking at a renegotiation of parts of the Belfast Agreement before the Stormont institutions were restored a year ago, but he has not pushed the matter since.
Several Government politicians, speaking privately, acknowledge concern that Dublin’s language and actions recently appear dismissive, with chatter emerging about the need for a significant speech soon on Northern Ireland by Martin.
Few, if any Government politicians who favour preparations want a fully fledged department of unity, accepting that such a move would imperil relations with the Democratic Unionist Party. But they, and many others, believe that Dublin is missing an opportunity, or worse, is being neglectful, by not setting up a second new Ireland forum to draw political, business and community voices together North and South.
Such a body would be engaged with if not by unionist politicians, perhaps, then by others in the unionist community who accept that there are conversations that can and should be had.
Does any of this matter, beyond the most interested? A Border referendum is not coming any time soon from British prime minister Keir Starmer who faces a re-election battle no later than July, 2029, but more likely far earlier than that.
However, The Irish Times/Arins polling shows that there are subterranean changes afoot in Northern Ireland that will have to be dealt with by politicians if not in the next five years, then in the five afterwards. In 2022, The Irish Times/Arins survey found 27 per cent in favour of unity in Northern Ireland. In 2023 the figure was 30 per cent. In the latest 2024 survey, the number had risen to 34 per cent.
Support in Northern Ireland for unity grew after Brexit but steadied after the Windsor Framework deal. Now, the incremental increases illustrated appear fuelled by the Republic’s economic success, versus Stormont’s woes.
None of this is guaranteed to continue, especially given the threat to taxes posed by US president Donald Trump. However, the question facing the Northern Ireland Secretary of State is whether NI’s voters “would likely” vote for unification.
The tests for such a judgment are subjective and ill-defined. The question could become more difficult to avoid in coming years, especially if the unionists lose control of another Westminster seat, perhaps East Derry. Neither will it become any easier to answer.
