Just 15 years ago, in 2010, there were 77,000 births in Ireland. By 2024, births had fallen to 54,000, a drop of 30 per cent. The proportion of births to non-native nationals has been increasing and accounted for 24.3 per cent of total births in 2022.
In Ireland, the total fertility rate, or number of births per woman, fell from 2.05 in 2010 to 1.7 last year.
Mothers are giving birth later. Their average age at birth was 33.3 in the first three months of last year compared with 29.1 in 2010. The age of mothers may also be one of the reasons for the marked increase in Caesarean sections, which has passed 40 per cent for first births.
Why have births been declining? Some attribute the fall to a decline in religious practice, as witnessed by the support for divorce, the widespread availability of contraception and access to abortion. In 2022, there were 8,156 abortions carried out on women in Ireland, equivalent to 14 per cent of births. This rose to 10,033 in 2023, equivalent to just 19 per cent of total births.
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The steady decline in infant mortality may be relevant as it may have reduced pressure for another pregnancy following the death of an infant. Infant mortality fell from 3.6 per 1,000 births in 2009 to 1.8 per thousand births in 2024.
The landmark papal encyclical, Humanae Vitae, published in 1968 by Pope Paul VI, forbade the use of artificial birth control where Catholics were concerned. It was a defining moment, with many women and men taking possession of their own conscience in the matter.
Doubtless there are those who continue to follow church teaching as set forth in Humanae Vitae and these may have higher than average fertility. In 1968 the total fertility rate in Ireland was 3.9 per 1,000; it has fallen since.
Even religious women began to rely on contraception because changes in the economy reduced the advantages of large families
— Nobel laureate Gary Becker
What about economic factors? In an agricultural economy, before the introduction of free post-primary education in 1967, children were an economic resource. They often left school after the primary level and helped on the family farm.
Nobel laureate Gary Becker wrote 25 years ago, in relation to changes in the Irish family, that “even religious women began to rely on contraception because changes in the economy reduced the advantages of large families. Increasing employment opportunities for women raised their financial independence”.
The struggle between economic incentives and religious beliefs probably slowed down behavioural changes, but, again to quote Becker, “one does not have to be an ‘economic determinist’ to recognise that economic incentives ultimately won the struggle”. Similar changes occurred in other Catholic countries including Spain, Italy and Portugal.
A few years after the entry of Ireland in 1973 into what was then the European Economic Community, the marriage bar was abolished. In 1979 the “Irish solution to an Irish problem” was introduced, which permitted the use of contraceptives by married couples. An improvement in the taxation of married couples followed.
As the economy grew, more women entered the workforce. The increased economic independence of women has facilitated choice. Today, 40 per cent of births are outside marriage or civil partnership.
As women increasingly entered the workforce there was, perhaps, an unforeseen consequence. As property prices rose it was no longer possible for the traditional “breadwinner” to obtain a mortgage on one income. The person who drew this to my attention was the late taoiseach Liam Cosgrave. He described the two-income mortgage as a turning point – now women needed to work to help pay the mortgage.
Beyond religion and economics, some women are content not to have children. As part of a course undertaken at UCD in 2019, a researcher surveyed 200 women and found that the primary reasons for not having children were contentment with life as it is, concern about climate change, and the desire to travel.
At the same time as some women decide not to become mothers, others are energetically pursuing IVF treatments in Ireland and by travelling abroad. It seems that the decline in the birth rate is due to a combination of factors, religious, economic and personal choice.
A final point concerns the value placed on motherhood. The defeat of the Care referendum last year, whereby carers and mothers would have merited a degree of equality, suggests that the uniqueness of motherhood continues to be valued.
Yet, earlier this month, when The Irish Times magazine presented a portrait of 25 Irish women who have provided leadership, instigated change and brought hope to others in the first quarter of this century, the “lifetime achievements” did not mention children. That tells its own story.
Dr Finola Kennedy is a mother. She is also an economist and author of Cottage to Creche: Family Change in Ireland (2001), Frank Duff: A Life Story (2011) and Local Matters: Parish, Local Government and Community in Ireland (2022)
