Political representatives of Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority have until tomorrow to sign up to a draft constitution agreed earlier this week by the country's two other major ethnic groupings - the Shias and Kurds.
It seems unlikely that the (mainly Sunni) insurgents will go along with what is being proposed. The stage is thus set for continuing, if not accelerating, bloodshed in the run-up to a referendum on the constitution, scheduled for October, and elections to form a new government, scheduled for December.
The proposed constitution enunciates high principles and extols some fine ideals. It also seeks to address several of the key points of anxiety for differing sections of the population. The preamble, for instance, makes reference to the need to build a state founded on the rule of law, in which there is equality of opportunity and where resources are distributed fairly.
Articles of the constitution state that Iraq will have a political system that is "republican, parliamentary, democratic and federal". Islam is to be "a main source" for legislation but the constitution then states that "No law may contradict Islamic standards ... No law may contradict democratic standards ... No law may contradict the essential rights and freedoms mentioned in this constitution".
The constitution outlaws torture and the sort of abuses of power carried out as routine by Saddam Hussein's security forces. Freedom of expression, freedom to publish and freedom to form political groups are also guaranteed, as is the freedom to live according to the faith of one's choice.
On the key issue of federalism and resources, the constitution seeks to strike a careful balance in which key powers are centralised but resources are not pillaged from the regions by central government. The federal authorities are charged with preserving Iraq's "unity, security, independence and sovereignty and its democratic federal system". Regions are defined as one or more provinces brought together by democratic mandate. "Oil and gas are the property of all the Iraqi people in regions and provinces," it says, adding: "The central government administers oil and gas extracted from current wells, along with governments of the producing regions and provinces, on the condition that revenues are distributed in a way that suits population distribution around the country."
Thus the constitution seeks to devolve power and responsibility from Baghdad, while simultaneously imposing a partnership between central and regional government. Sunnis, who formed the backbone of Saddam's dictatorship, do not like all of this. Shias and Kurds, who make up the overwhelming bulk of the population, have achieved much of what they wanted. But it is in their interest, and the interest of everyone outside Iraq, that the constitution receives the widest possible endorsement if Iraqis are to have any chance of stabilising their country and living in peace.