There is no joy for the Government in today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. Eight months into its second term in office, the backlash against the Coalition, the Taoiseach and, particularly, the Fianna Fáil party has not abated since the general election.
The trend, which is often a more informative indicator than percentage points in a poll, is going in the wrong downward direction with some consistency. And, for the first time since Mr Bertie Ahern became Taoiseach in 1997, there's a faint flicker of an alternative government coming over the horizon.
The findings of the poll published today, which was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week against the backdrop of a possible war in Iraq, are bad on all counts for the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrat coalition. The Government's satisfaction rating has dropped two percentage points to 31 per cent since last October - statistically insignificant in itself - but by a full 30 points since the election last May. Mr Ahern's dominance in the leadership stakes has disappeared with his personal rating falling to 43 per cent, the level of non-teflon coated leaders of other parties. He comes in behind the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, the Labour Party leader, Mr Rabbitte, and the Sinn Féin president, Mr Adams, in the popularity ratings.
A curious inconsistency is emerging between the support levels for Fianna Fáil and its junior partner, the PDs. In the third opinion poll since the administration was formed, Fianna Fáil is bearing the brunt of the backlash against the Government with a further drop in support to 32 per cent, the lowest since Mr Ahern first became Taoiseach. The PDs, on the other hand, show a marginal increase in support and roughly two-thirds of their supporters are dissatisfied with the performance of the Government.
The findings of the poll offer the first encouragement for some considerable time to Fine Gael and the Labour Party. Their combined strength of 38 per cent is equal to that of the Coalition parties. There are some straws in the wind that inter-party dynamics in the Dáil may be changing with a marginal drop in support for the "alternative opposition" of the Green Party, Sinn Féin and some Independent TDs.
The Fine Gael leader, Mr Kenny, has the lowest rating of all of the party leaders in the poll. The jury is still out on his stewardship. The new Labour leader, Mr Rabbitte, can be pleased that he assumes the standing of his predecessor in his first poll. Both Fine Gael and Labour are showing increases in support. Fianna Fáil's loss is their gain. There appears to be a stirring in the political undergrowth in the first poll of the new year.