Exactly a year ago, the people of Ireland, North and South, nationalist and unionist, Catholic and Protestant, democratically endorsed the agreement which had been hammered out the previous Good Friday at Stormont Buildings. The level of support varied from place to place and from one loyalty to another. But a majority of each sub-set of the population approved what their political representatives had agreed as the way forward. It is important to remember, as stresses and strains continue in achieving the final implementation of the Belfast Agreement, that it is not something which any group of politicians may choose to discard. It is in place at the will of the people.
Mr Tony Blair's "absolute deadline" of June 30th for the establishment of the new executive has to be seen against this background. He may be taken at his word - with the usual allowance for some slippage - that this is his objective. But even if efforts to move forward come to nothing at this time, we are still left with the Belfast Agreement, overwhelmingly adopted by the people who live on this island as the basis for their future co-existence. A failure of politics would be an invitation to return to large-scale violence. Any hint or suggestion, therefore, that the Assembly might be suspended should be as unthinkable as the possibility that the IRA should return to full-scale hostilities.
The recent Hillsborough Declaration and last week's statement after the discussions at Downing Street, represent polarities of the argument over decommissioning. The first was approved by the unionists and rejected by Sinn Fein. The latter, in spite of Mr Trimble's initial apparent willingness to buy in, has been turned down by the unionists but is acceptable to Sinn Fein. That is hardly surprising, since it effectively offers them what they want without conditions, before or after. In all probability, some middle-way will be found between the two over the coming weeks. Assurances will have to be made specific and clear consequences will have to be spelled out if parties fail to live up to their undertakings.
Above all, there will have to be movement from fixed positions. When Mr Gerry Adams emerged from the White House on St Patrick's Day, having been told by President Clinton that he had to move on decommissioning, he undertook to "stretch the Republican constituency". There has been little sign of it. The imaginative formula which was presented in the Hillsborough Declaration offered Sinn Fein and the IRA a way forward without loss of face. Repeated urgings that the IRA should discuss a timetable for decommissioning, that they should agree modalities or that they should issue an unequivocal statement declaring an end to violence, have not been responded to.
Earlier this week, Mr Adams said he believed that "if the unionists were given room to manoeuvre, they would manoeuvre". He is correct. The history of this impasse has been punctuated by affirmations from David Trimble - notably in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech - that he is willing to be flexible. He has repeatedly said that he is willing to have the process of decommissioning overseen by General de Chastelain and to accept the General's adjudication. But what is Sinn Fein doing to create that room to manoeuvre? Mr Adams must know that Mr Trimble has been given none in the arrangements which emerged from the Downing Street discussions. He has been afforded no cover, no assurances, no devices to enable the other parties to apply sanctions to Sinn Fein if the private army of which it is the political wing refuses to scale down its arsenal. It has been said that Mr Trimble should take a "leap of faith". As matters stand what he is being asked to take is a "leap in the dark". Little wonder that he should decline.