This is an important week for the political process in Northern Ireland. At the level of the two governments, the inconclusive meeting in London five days ago on some of the vital aspects of all party talks will be resumed tomorrow. And at the democratic level, the election on Thursday for the Northern Forum is of equal significance for the effort to secure just and permanent peace. With the first meeting of the all party talks scheduled to be held a fortnight from today, there is no certainty about the agenda, the strategy, or the list of participants.
Attitudes have hardened in advance of the election, and are mirrored in the difficulties encountered by the Tanaiste and the Northern Secretary in finding formula for decommissioning that will not deter the unionists but will enable Sinn Fein to meet the commitment Mr Gerry Adams has made to the Mitchell principles (which include an undertaking to "renounce for themselves, and to oppose any efforts by others, to use force or threaten to use force, to influence... negotiations"). Mr David Trimble of the Ulster Unionist Party has made it clear that, regardless of the consequences, he will insist on a beginning to decommissioning before he will talk about substantive issues.
What do the average punters think about the polarisation between Sinn Fein's obduracy and the adamantine stance of the unionists on the question of arms? Experience suggests that they will vote for their political parties, in spite of the widespread and genuine support for peace and the recognition that this will not be obtained without some sort of compromise on traditional positions. To this extent, mandate seeking is a limited exercise.
The election, however, is designed to secure a more refined response from voters. The presence of the cross community Women's Coalition introduces a new and important set of voices to political dialogue which has already shown itself at local level to be pragmatic and constructive. Support for it, and for the Alliance Party, provides an outlet for those who believe that the old moulds must be broken if there is to be progress. Other parties, like the loyalists and the conservatives, and Mr Bob McCartney's brand of unionism, open up the debate, and are likely to make it, in some respects, less predictable.
On the nationalist side, the balance between the SDLP and Sinn Fein will be a yardstick for measuring the extent of Mr Adams's "mandate" and is also bound to influence the shape of any final agreement. The main uncertainty, which affects all political parties, is the turn out by the electorate. A large vote, in which all parts of the community are represented, will give the political process the dynamism it needs to counteract the negative tendencies of the last year. That is most urgently needed.
Considerable effort and ingenuity have been invested in reaching this stage in Northern Ireland's progress. The political parties must not look for excuses to avoid negotiation: unionist insistence on the precise detail of decommissioning is as questionable (because with or without disarming there can be no absolute guarantee of the IRA's commitment to peace) as Sinn Fein's refusal to contemplate any concessions. The governments' task is to lay the groundwork, but ultimate responsibility lies with the politicians who are seeking endorsement this week.