IRELAND'S INFLUENCE in the European Union has become a key issue in the final round of campaigning on the Lisbon Treaty, ahead of voting on Thursday.
The issue has crystallised around the role of Ireland's representation on the commission and other EU institutions. The No side says it would be wrong to vote for a treaty which would deprive us regularly of a commissioner and change the weight of our vote in the Council of Ministers. The Yes side says a No vote would isolate and marginalise this State, inevitably reducing influence and the EU's own international effectiveness.
Representation in EU institutions is determined by rules which balance the interests of larger and smaller member states. The independent commission has sole power to initiate legislation, but laws can only be passed after approval by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. This system contains a key safeguard for smaller states because it equalises the right to propose and pass legislation between the largest and smallest members. All states have to find allies in this system. It works best when an effective commission combines with a representative council and parliament.
Commissioners are nominated by member-states but swear allegiance to the EU as a whole. Their loyalty is to the entire system, not only to their home state, and their job is to make the system work effectively for all concerned. With a current (and increasing) EU membership of 27 it is universally agreed that such a large executive body is less efficient. Under Lisbon member states will have a commissioner for 10 out of 15 years with a strictly equal rotation between large and small states from 2014. If Lisbon falls the Nice Treaty rules will apply, reducing the commission's size from next year. Lisbon is the better deal. Ireland can claim credit for this since its terms were negotiated under the Irish EU presidency in 2004.
Similarly in a much larger EU the Lisbon Treaty's reweighting of votes so that laws can only be passed when they have a double majority of 55 per cent of member states and 65 per cent of population from 2014 better expresses the actual balances among the EU's 500 million people than Nice. Ireland will still be fully represented on the Council of Ministers, in the European Parliament and in Brussels by its powerful permanent delegation of civil servants - all more important channels of influence than a commissioner. Enhanced scrutiny by national parliaments would also bolster that influence, which in practice depends much more on carefully cultivated alliances than contentious votes.
After seven years of hard bargaining this Lisbon compromise would be very difficult to renegotiate after a No vote because all other member states also have a stake in it. Ireland would be alone in this endeavour. For all that they respect Ireland's sovereign right to reject the treaty other leaders would be unsympathetic and likely to go ahead without us. That would risk Ireland's existing influence in the EU, carefully cultivated over many years. It would also endanger the many political and economic benefits this has had for us.