Failure to reach agreement in next week's all-party talks will have negative consequences for all, writes Paul Murphy, Northern Ireland Secretary.
Over the last 30 years and more Northern Ireland has seen periods of total despair, when dialogue was impossible and politics was smothered by violence, to the moments of elation and breakthrough during the past decade. There is no doubt that Northern Ireland is emerging from its long nightmare.
We can all look back at the achievements of the last few years and reflect on the extraordinary changes that have come to Northern Ireland. I do not for a moment underestimate those advances - and I have often acknowledged how far both unionism and republicanism have travelled - but as we approach perhaps the most critical week in the political process since 1998 I want to concentrate on the immediate future.
What has to be done at Leeds Castle is clear enough. The agonisingly slow pace of progress in recent years has narrowed the focus to two remaining issues: paramilitary activity and power-sharing. As the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach have reiterated in recent weeks, the republican movement must finally complete the transition to exclusively peaceful means.
Paramilitary groups must cease their activities once and for all and their weapons must be put beyond use. In response, unionists must commit themselves fully and wholeheartedly to all the political institutions. All sides must take responsibility for policing the community and play an active role in its delivery. These are not new requirements: the Prime Minister set them out very clearly in his speech in Belfast two years ago. And, of course, the governments, too, will play their parts.
I believe these ambitions are realisable within the next 10 days if the will is there on all sides. I understand the weariness and the cynicism: we seem to have been round this circuit so many times before.
That is precisely why I believe this week is critical. Because, as Tony Blair said on Tuesday, we simply cannot continue with this endless round of crisis negotiation: if we fail next week we will have to find another way.
For as long as I have been involved in this process - and no doubt for much longer - there has been something of an obsession with what this alternative might be.
What is Plan B? The answer is very simple. Plan B is failure for the people of Northern Ireland and the frustration of their legitimate hopes. And that failure has consequences for all of us. There is no alternative based on direct rule which will not be detrimental and unwelcome in different ways to every side in Northern Ireland.
In the context of devolution across the nations and regions of the United Kingdom, the British government does not regard direct rule of Northern Ireland as an acceptable solution in the medium term, still less the long term. No one in Northern Ireland should fool themselves that it is a comfortable option.
Even those who have no constitutional objection to direct rule must surely realise that a period of "care and maintenance" by British ministers is coming to an end. We cannot go on simply oiling the machine: there are fundamental decisions to be made about the education of Northern Ireland's children, investment in public services, new infrastructure and strategic economic development.
The institutions reflecting relationships between North and South and east and west cannot continue merely to tread water. The entire public sector in Northern Ireland is about to be reformed through the Review of Public Administration. Politicians - unionist, nationalist, republican and loyalist - should be shaping these decisions: not to do so would be to fail this generation and the next.
Over the past six months Brian Cowen and I have met the parties to review the Good Friday agreement, discussing the ideas which parties from all sides have offered as improvements to the operation of the institutions as the agreement envisaged. We have made progress, but it has been slow and painful.
But it is not too late to recapture some of the spirit of optimism which flowed so freely six years ago.
We need to do so at Leeds Castle if we are to avoid the real danger of failure: ever-growing indifference and irritation with the entire process among the people of Northern Ireland.
There are those, of course, who argue that public indifference is actually a sign of growing normality, that political apathy shows that Northern Ireland is catching up with the corresponding trend across Europe.
I cannot agree, not simply because political apathy anywhere is unhealthy but because, as always, Northern Ireland is different. There apathy and disaffection can be dangerous. If Northern Ireland is to stand a chance of healing the wounds of the past, of building a new, inclusive society, of creating a better place for tomorrow's citizens, it needs a population which is engaged.
For people to become engaged they need politicians who show themselves to be both committed and reasonable; principled and willing to be generous. Leeds Castle is the moment for all of us, republicans and unionists, nationalists and loyalists, and governments, to be generous for the sake of the future.