French voters reaffirmed the basic right-left cleavage of their politics yesterday by deciding that Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal will compete in the final round of the presidential election on May 6th. It was a magnificent demonstration of democracy in action, as 85 per cent of voters turned out compared to 60 per cent in the first round five years ago. They have opted in a politically coherent way for the two most serious candidates.
This should make for a more effective campaign over the next two weeks as the electorate decides who has the better programme, is more competent to execute it and has a more suitable character for presidential leadership.
Attention now turns to how Mr Sarkozy or Ms Royal can mobilise a majority against one another after last night's results. Mr Sarkozy's plan to persuade those who voted for the extreme right-wing Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002 to return to the centre-right fold has worked and shows up in his 30 per cent of the vote. How much can he now expect to get from the 18 per cent who supported the centrist François Bayrou on this occasion, as well as from the 11 per cent voting for Mr Le Pen? Ms Royal faces the same questions vis-a-vis Mr Bayrou and the far left. She must decide whether to take up the proposal that she would invite Mr Bayrou to form a government in order to maximise the "anybody but Sarkozy" sentiment animating many left-wing and centrist voters.
Both candidates have the potential to create a clear majority from these results and the heightened political participation and consciousness they reveal. But if they are to do so they have a very short time to address the core concerns of voters about France's economic performance, national identity and political future. The campaign so far has been unsatisfactorily ill-focused and scrappy. Two very different visions are on offer about economic growth, employment, social protection, immigration and law and order, even though there is a certain convergence between Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal that France needs radical reform if these issues are to be tackled properly. Accompanying the right-left programmatic debate is a parallel one about competence and character. Mr Sarkozy is considered more competent than Ms Royal by most voters, but they worry whether his volatile character might outweigh that advantage. Ms Royal has a more stable personality and a wider appeal, but does she have the determination and flair to carry her programme through? Underlying these issues is a huge disenchantment by the French electorate with the quality and trustworthiness of its political elite.
Whoever wins has the difficult job of reconciling France with the loss of the international influence it has had for the last 50 years and finding ways to renew or reinvent it. That is perfectly possible given its economic and political resources and its cultural and intellectual resourcefulness. Its partners in the European Union and its friends throughout the world will watch this contest, and deal with its outcome, keenly and sympathetically.