The result of the South Antrim by-election, in which the DUP candidate, the Rev William McCrea, defeated the UUP's Mr David Burnside, is a wake-up call for those who support the Belfast Agreement. This was a strategic election, in which the UUP leader and First Minister, Mr David Trimble, faced a test of credibility on his leadership and direction of the party. After this result he will have a very difficult autumn. He needs help, but it is far from clear how and where he will get it from the agreement's supporters.
Mr Trimble showed his mettle yesterday by refusing to contemplate quitting as leader. He sought consolation in the low turnout - apathy among traditional UUP supporters is a growing phenomenon and a worrying one for Northern Ireland's political life. There was always an anti-agreement majority in this constituency, which the DUP candidate tapped into with an effective campaign. The UUP candidate, Mr Burnside, has blown hot and cold on the agreement, hardly the best means of rallying his supporters. His efforts to involve prominent London-based unionists in his campaign appears to have backfired. Yesterday Mr Burnside blamed concessions to nationalists and the undermining of Northern Ireland's British identity for the defeat, a warning shot to Mr Trimble.
The other parties in the Executive and the two sovereign governments must take full heed of these new realities. Mr Trimble himself plainly blamed the handling of the Patten proposals to reform the RUC for the result. He will be looking for a substantial response by the Secretary of State, Mr Peter Mandelson, as the Police Bill goes to the House of Lords in coming weeks. Disillusionment among moderate unionists with the Belfast Agreement has crystallised around the issue, as much on emotional and symbolic as practical grounds.
There is great reluctance, indeed growing outright hostility, to changing the name and badge of the RUC, despite the compromises made by Mr Mandelson. Neither the SDLP nor Sinn Fein has moderated their exceptionally strong criticisms of how he has handled the issue. There may be some room for manoeuvre involving changes to the roles of the Oversight Commissioner, Ombudsman and Policing Board, where Mr Mandelson has departed from the Patten proposals. Some gesture could be made on symbolic issues to reassure unionists that their identities are recognised and respected.
Overall, however, the principle that there must be a completely fresh start on policing Northern Ireland based on the Patten proposals cannot be sacrificed. That is at the core of the Belfast Agreement. Were it to be unravelled the whole edifice would be endangered. Such are the dilemmas facing all concerned as they seek to implement the agreement. Getting the policing issue right would help to consolidate the Belfast Agreement. But after such a substantial setback this is an exceptionally difficult and sensitive task.