In world affairs 2005 was framed by several natural disasters with huge social and political consequences. The Asian tsunami's sudden impact on Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka and other countries was a terrifying reminder of how vulnerable poor coastal peoples are to such oceanic surges.
This made the disaster simultaneously a social one, with many implications for governments, non-governmental organisations and the international community's ability to offer relief and solidarity. On balance the response to the tsunami has been magnificent.
In September, Hurricane Katrina devastated the New Orleans coastline in what was very much a United States disaster, hitting the weakest, oldest and poorest people hardest. Only now is the city struggling back to life. The crisis alerted Americans and the rest of the world to the possibility that the increased incidence of hurricanes is related to global warming. Research published later in the year showed that Atlantic Ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream that warms Ireland, are being directly affected by it. Several international conferences decided to move ahead with belated policy measures to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions responsible. They need to be cut by 60 per cent by 2050 to make a real difference.
The third major natural disaster, the largest earthquake ever to hit the Kashmiri Himalayas, demonstrated again how poorly equipped the United Nations is to help governments and peoples overwhelmed by such calamities. There was some progress made over the year with a UN reform programme, but nothing on the scale required to set up a standing fund and facilities to tackle such emergencies. The same applied to international development, as the Group of Eight and the World Trade Organisation responded unevenly to political and popular pressure for relieving indebtedness of the poorest states and giving them greater access to world markets.
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World power is distributed between three major regions. The sole remaining superpower, the US, had to recognise much more openly this year that it cannot rely only on military dominance but needs allies to achieve its objectives. The European Union is gradually emerging as an international entity with an increasingly influential soft power capability, but is still secondary to the US. And the Asian region, containing most of the world's population, is being transformed by economic growth in China, Japan and India and closer intra-regional relations. Compared to these three the Middle East remained the most volatile region, as Iraq made an uncertain and unstable transition towards self-rule. Latin America saw a marked shift to the left over the year, creating problems for the Bush administration. And there was little progress made against endemic poverty and uneven development in Africa, where humanitarian crises continued in Darfur and west Africa, despite a more active African Union.
In the inaugural address for his second term President Bush told his allies: "We honour your friendship, we rely on your counsel and we depend on your help". This represented a move away from unilateralism towards engagement, prompted by difficulties in Iraq and overstretch elsewhere. It was followed up by his visit to Europe in February, where he met its leaders and conspicuously dealt with the EU as well as Nato. At the time there was much commentary on the supposed superiority of the emerging multilateral European over the unilateral American model of international engagement, whether in economic, social or political affairs. This discourse took a knock when French and Dutch voters rejected the EU constitutional treaty, European economies remained sluggish, its leaders failed to agree an EU budget, EU enlargement remained unpopular in core member states and political uncertainty hovered over France, Germany and Italy. Ireland, in contrast, maintained its economic buoyancy and political confidence.
Pessimism receded towards the end of the year, when EU leaders found a resolve to settle the budget and tackle some of these problems, realising that effective European co-operation is an indispensable part of their own national power. Mr Bush is also claiming a political recovery after a bad year in which his popularity sank to record lows over Iraq, Katrina and stalled domestic initiatives. But transatlantic tensions remain unresolved.
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Europe and the US, which still dominate international affairs, are challenged by two major forces in the contemporary world. China's spectacular economic and social modernisation proceeded apace throughout 2005 and is set to continue. Scarce resources, environmental pollution and a mismatch between dramatic economic growth, more gradual social adjustment and continuing communist party rule are the three principal constraints it faces. A similar but more democratic process is under way in India. Japan's renewed dynamism is intimately connected to these other changes in its region. Ensuring that this can continue without destabilising rivalry between these powers should preoccupy international diplomacy.
New cultures and civilisations are thereby brought to world prominence. Creating a genuine alliance of civilisations rather than a conflict between them is the second major challenge facing the US and the EU. It should not be deflected by making spurious links between Islamic cultures and international terrorism. Pope Benedict XVI, who succeeded Pope John Paul II in universally observed ceremonies this year, could play an important role here.
But the overriding challenge facing all the world's states and peoples is environmental. A series of tipping points faces humanity in the early 21st century concerning global warming, new diseases, exhaustion of natural resources and environmental degradation. This last year underlines how little time there may be before they shift qualitatively. We have the means to tackle them if the political will is there to do so.