It will come down in the end to the commitment of Yes and No voters to turn-out next Wednesday on polling day . That is the main finding of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which gives the Yes side, promoted by the Government, the Catholic Church and the Pro-Life Campaign the edge going into the final weekend of the campaign. The abortion referendum could go either way at this stage, but unlike Nice last year, no one will be able to claim shock and horror at the result.
The Taoiseach has good reason to be pleased that the Yes vote (35 per cent) is marginally ahead of the No vote (31 per cent) with five days to go to polling. The Government's proposal to give the Human Life in Pregnancy Bill protection within the Constitution has divided the medical disciplines. It has produced contradictory recommendations from key practitioners - the masters of the three main maternity hospitals in Dublin and psychiatrists. It has fostered two separate wings of the so-called pro-life movement. It has brought the independent Referendum Commission and the Catholic hierarchy into conflict with the Government on the precise status of the morning-after pill.
For all of that, the Taoiseach can heave a sigh of relief that the referendum is not already lost. There are no grounds, however, for Government complacency. The poll shows that the Yes vote has fallen by 4 percentage points in five weeks; the No vote has dropped by 3 points; and the percentage of those undecided or who say they will not vote has increased by 7 points to 34 per cent. An overwhelming majority of four out of five voters believe that they have not been adequately informed of the issues involved in the referendum.
There is ample comfort in the poll for the leaders of the main Opposition parties - Mr Noonan, Mr Quinn and Mr Sargent - that the campaign is still there to be won. There is a substantial No majority in Dublin and urban areas generally. The No voters outnumber Yes voters to different degrees among Fine Gael, Labour, Progressive Democrats, Green Party, Sinn Féin and Other supporters. Indeed, on the principle of abortion being available in Ireland, a majority of 57 per cent of voters favour it in certain circumstances while 9 per cent want it in all circumstances.
The overall findings suggest that the result of the abortion referendum is too close to call. It will depend on whether the Yes or No side is more motivated to chase their votes. One thing, however, is certain. The move to row-back on the X case by removing suicide as a ground for abortion in this State is a fundamental question for Irish society. We grant a constitutional permit to thousands of Irish women to travel to England each year for abortions. These are matters on which voters hold sincere views which can best be expressed through the ballot box.