Afghanistan emerged yesterday from three decades of civil war and occupation by Soviet troops, the Taliban militia and a United States-led invading force with a newly installed president, Mr Hamid Karzai, elected last October to serve a five-year term.
He will rule over a vast country of some 25 million people in one of the most remote, yet strategic, parts of the world.
His government's political and administrative reach within it are severely circumscribed. Effectively he has full sovereignty only over the Kabul region, where his rule is bolstered by 8,400 NATO peacekeeping troops. Elsewhere 18,000 United States troops have free rein to pursue al-Qaeda bands, including their elusive leader Osama Bin Laden; most other regions are ruled by warlords with another 50,000 troops and militias at their disposal, subject to very weak central control.
Since Mr Karzai started in office as interim president in mid-2002, three million refugees have returned from neighbouring countries; many women have returned to the workforce, schools and the electorate in what remains an extremely patriarchal society; and there has been some reconstruction of the capital and major transport infrastructure. A draft constitution has been agreed. But Mr Karzai's new government faces truly daunting tasks in establishing its authority against warlord control of most of the country.
The warlords' independent role is enormously strengthened by the country's booming drugs industry. According to recent United Nations statistics, 80 per cent of the world's opium production comes from Afghanistan, with 95 per cent of its derivative heroin coming to Europe from there via Pakistan and the Netherlands. Production was sharply up last year by 64 per cent, making up an estimated 60 per cent of the country's GDP. Afghan farmers can earn $12,700 per hectare each year from opium, compared to $220 for wheat.
Faced with these economic realities, US and British agencies plan to spend large sums buying out farmers or spraying crops; but it is hard to see such policies rolling back those realities in the short to medium term without much greater international aid for nation-building. Ideologically and financially this does not suit the Bush administration. In these circumstances Afghanistan seems well on the way to become a "narco-state", rather than a beacon of democracy. The huge wealth arising from opium production under warlord control could be more dangerous in the longer term than terrorist movements such as al-Qaeda based in Afghanistan. It would be surprising if they too do not cash in on the drugs bonanza.