The Taoiseach and the Prime Minister endeavoured to put a good face on it after the ending of the Weston House talks on Saturday afternoon. But the Northern Ireland institutions - and perhaps the peace process itself - are now on life-support. The two governments have about five weeks in which to devise a formula which can get the Executive and the Assembly back to normal functioning. If they cannot do so, suspension must be more than probable and the key representative and executive structures provided for in the Belfast Agreement will cease to operate.
If that happens there can be little hope of fulfilling the other objectives of the Agreement: cross-community agreement on policing, full demilitarisation, further reform of the criminal justice system. These will be the visible failures. Less visible initially but lethal in the longer term will be the emergence yet again of a vacuum of political activity. If there is no effective representative politics, the inevitable drift of influence and power will be back towards the paramilitaries.
Within the next couple of weeks the two governments will present what is described as a non-negotiable package to the pro-Agreement parties (although spokesmen have suggested there may be "consultation"). It is envisaged as a take-it-or-leave-it formula that addresses the linked issues of IRA decommissioning, police reform and demilitarisation. Essentially, matters will then boil down to two questions: can Sinn Fein deliver IRA decommissioning and can the British government and the unionists meet nationalist demands on policing?
The case for further amendments to the legislation which will bring the Police Service of Northern Ireland into existence has some validity. It is reported that the British government is willing to respond at least partially to nationalist requirements. But by any standard, the proposed new police service will have a fair and accountable structure and will be closely linked to the community. It should not prove impossible to square the circle on policing.
It is difficult to be as optimistic on IRA decommissioning. Rumours and suggestions filtered from the Weston Park talks about possible concreting of arms dumps and pouring chemicals over weapons to render them useless. None of this elicited any intimation of support or enthusiasm from Sinn Fein sources. There have been folksy words from Mr Gerry Adams, wishing that the IRA could go into a "happy retirement". But there is not a shred of hard evidence that even at this point the Sinn Fein/ IRA movement is prepared wholly and irrevocably to chose between the way of violence and the way of democracy.
Sinn Fein and the IRA have not been obliged, so far, to make that choice. They have succeeded in freeing their prisoners, taking their places in government and securing an impressive share of electoral spoils - while their "army" remains intact, well-armed and capable of being deployed as muscle wherever and whenever the leadership sees fit. When David Trimble resigned as First Minister on July 1st he brought matters to a head and those who believe in democracy on this island should be thankful that he did so. The package to be presented by the two governments will have to be carefully balanced. But there must be no fudge on decommissioning of weapons. Those who enjoy the privileges of democratically elected office cannot remain wedded to an armed, illegal force. Sinn Fein and the IRA must choose politics and politics alone - as the electorate demanded of them in May 1999. If they do not do so, the operation of the Belfast Agreement is a sham.