Agreement is facing its most serious test since it was signed

At Monday's meeting of the Northern Ireland Assembly Peter Robinson answered questions on subjects that come within his remit…

At Monday's meeting of the Northern Ireland Assembly Peter Robinson answered questions on subjects that come within his remit as Minister of the Environment - plans for the Antrim to Lisburn railway line, roadworks on the A29 between Moneymore and Desertmartin, a proposed £1.7 million scheme for upgrading the road between Strabane and Derry. It was an authoritative and civilised performance.

This is one face of the current state of the peace process. According to the Northern Ireland Office, the new political institutions are "bedding down" very nicely. Even when the argument becomes more heated, as happened on Monday during the debate on the Patten Report, at least it is conducted in a democratic setting and the only weapons deployed are words.

How does this square with the talk of a serious crisis, depending on what Gen John de Chastelain has to say about decommissioning in his report? There is a feeling of deja vu, that politics in Northern Ireland since the Belfast Agreement was signed has been punctuated by predictions of imminent doom. Against this, the institutions are up and running. The ministerial cars roll to and fro across the Border. It seems unthinkable that all this could unravel.

The reality behind these hopeful images is that the Belfast Agreement is facing its most serious test since it was signed two years ago. The problem of decommissioning, which has dogged the process from the beginning, has been successfully put on the long finger on a number of occasions. Now it seems that time, and the ingenuity of the two governments, are running out.

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We do not know for certain what Gen de Chastelain will say in his report. But the omens are not good. The Chief Constable of the RUC has said he does not expect decommissioning to take place "imminently".

It may be that the general will be able to give it as his judgment that the republican movement is seriously committed to putting all weapons beyond use by May 2000 - though even that must be called into serious question by the most recent haul of weapons, including Semtex, in the Republic. Such a verdict would allow the two governments to express a view that progress on decommissioning is, just about, under way. Whether such an endorsement of the IRA's long-term intentions would be enough to save David Trimble when he meets his party's governing body in two weeks' time is another matter entirely.

At the moment the Ulster Unionist leader seems remarkably sanguine about the future. He has said it may be necessary to suspend the political institutions if Gen de Chastelain's report is negative. But he does not believe that this will "break" the peace process. On the contrary, it could emerge stronger and more secure.

With the best will in the world, this sounds like whistling in the dark. In theory, a decision by the British government to suspend the Executive would allow Mr Trimble to tell the Ulster Unionist Council that he is no longer sitting in government with Sinn Fein and that, therefore, the question of his resignation does not arise. But, as Frank Millar argued in a trenchant article in this newspaper earlier this week, the difficulties now facing Mr Trimble go way beyond decommissioning.

There is anger that Peter Mandelson has refused to take on board the depth of resistance to changing the name of the RUC. The fact that Sinn Fein has dismissed Patten as lacking substance and continues to express its opposition to the RUC on every possible occasion has not helped. It simply reinforces the suspicions of many unionists that republicans are not prepare to accept the responsibilities involved in running a democratic society.

The two governments must be aware that a decision to suspend the executive would cause a crisis of confidence within Northern Ireland, reviving fears that the whole peace process could slip away. It would also undermine the trust that has been slowly built within the Assembly and make it even more difficult for the various parties to work together in the future, if and when the problems over decommissioning are resolved.

Inevitably, the blame game will come into immediate play. Sinn Fein will cry "foul" and argue that it contravenes the Belfast Agreement to take any decision before the May deadline for decommissioning. Presumably, Gerry Adams has already been putting across this message in the United States. The republican leadership will also say, with some justification, that it has consistently told the two governments that there will be no handover of weapons. For the IRA to do this would be to risk a split.

All this may be true, but if Sinn Fein hopes to continue along its political path, the republican leadership must recognise that the climate of opinion has changed. There is considerable sympathy in London, Dublin and Washington for Mr Trimble and the unionist community, and a sense that they should not be pushed further.

PUBLIC opinion in this State is, if anything, even stronger on the issue of decommissioning than it was when the agreement was signed. The MRBI poll published in this newspaper last week showed that 86 per cent of the electorate accept that decommissioning is an integral part of the accord and want to see paramilitaries begin the handover of weapons without delay. This is something which Gerry Adams and his colleagues will have to bear in mind if they hope to build a political presence in this State.

For the overwhelming majority of nationalists (and for quite a few unionists) there is a serious feel-good factor to the Belfast Agreement. People are proud that, against all the odds, the Irish peace process seems to be working rather well. The fact that they voted overwhelmingly to support it has given them a sense of ownership and they will not easily forgive anyone who is seen to put its future at risk.

Some of the reports on last week's meeting of the Assembly have hinted that it was, well, boring. How wonderful. The people of Northern Ireland have lived in interesting and tragic times for more than 30 years. Boring politics is what most of them desperately want.