Suspending the power-sharing Executive or holding immediate elections areamong the options for the North which Bertie Ahern and Tiny Blair mustconsider tonight, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.
Northern Ireland has entered the land of GUBU. For younger readers, this was an acronym coined by Conor Cruise O'Brien 20 years ago when Charles Haughey, under heavy pressure, described one sensational turn of events as "grotesque, unprecedented, bizarre and unbelievable".
GUBU then became the shorthand for the dramas, heaves and tumultuous politics of the Haughey era but had been put out to pasture. Time for a reprise.
This week, Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams, when asked what he thought of the events surrounding the alleged IRA espionage at the heart of the Northern Ireland Office, replied, without any sense of irony, that they were "grotesque", "unbelievable" and "bizarre". He didn't say "unprecedented" but reporters present who covered that turbulent period of Southern politics took it as a given.
Sinn Féin, as predicted, has mounted a strong damage-limitation exercise, concentrating on the egregious manner in which the PSNI raided its office last Friday but ignoring what unionists can't ignore, that a stack of sensitive documentation was allegedly stolen from John Reid's offices and that the IRA allegedly had a potential hit-list of prison officers.
In the spirit of Mr Haughey one can't help but admire the Sinn Féin president's chutzpah. He was at his most charmingly disingenuous on the Pat Kenny Show yesterday.
The best way of establishing whether people were unhappy with claims that republicans had penetrated the Northern Secretary's offices was to call elections now and test if Sinn Féin would suffer, he very politely suggested.
Neither does the DUP lack prop forward structure in the neck department. It was in a rather timid will-it-won't-it-withdraw-from-the-Executive mode this week. Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds finally said it would pull out - but not until Friday, just in case David Trimble politically blindsides the party in the meantime.
And what should happen next? Mr Dodds was asked on BBC Radio Ulster's Talkback programme. Immediate elections, said Nigel Dodds, for once on the same wavelength as Mr Adams.
Dr Reid, flying to London yesterday for the afternoon meeting between Mr Trimble and Mr Tony Blair, would have been briefed on these comments. "Nice one Gerry, nice one Nigel - you never miss a trick," you could imagine him muttering.
There is powerful GUBU resonance here. Call elections now and who is most likely to gain? Sinn Féin and the DUP. Who most likely to be hammered? The Ulster Unionists and the SDLP. And this with Provisional republicans central to allegations over Colombia, Castlereagh and now the IRA's "Stormontgate" and as the DUP is trying to wreck the power-sharing architecture of the Belfast Agreement.
Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair will have some hard talking to do at Downing Street tonight.Dublin sees some advantage in immediate elections followed by negotiations but if Mr Ahern pushes that idea, he can expect resistance from the British Prime Minister. It wasn't Mr Trimble who was allegedly spying on Dr Reid's confidential correspondence so therefore why should he be the one to suffer, is the British government line.
London still views Mr Trimble, despite being forced towards the UUP's anti-agreement wing, as unionism's "most enlightened leader". If that conviction is challenged, officials ask "Well, tell us the unionist alternative who can make power-sharing work?"
MR Ahern and Mr Blair have to plan the next phase of this difficult political and peace process tonight. Mr Trimble provided a little slack yesterday when he gave Mr Blair until next week to support an Executive expulsion motion against Sinn Féin.
Mr Trimble says he will bring down the Executive if the British government does not move by Tuesday. We may not get as far as Tuesday but at least Dublin and London have a few days grace to break the fall.
It would also buy time for the IRA to engage in some political rescue initiative, were it so minded. But such is the collapse in trust that even if the IRA today started unloading lorry-loads of Kalashnikovs and Semtex outside Parliament Buildings, Stormont unionists would insist it was a mirage.
Neither Mr Blair nor Dr Reid is saying but indications are that they would avoid any action or motion that would be perceived as excluding Sinn Féin. Suspension remains the likeliest option at the moment with the British government, with some input from the Irish Government, reverting to a period of direct rule.
In the meantime issues outside the scope of the Executive would continue to be implemented such as policing, criminal justice and human rights.
Dublin, Sinn Féin, the DUP and probably the SDLP will demand that if politics is deep-frozen for a period that the scheduled May elections must proceed.
Prof Paul Bew, a close associate of Mr Trimble has suggested a 12 -month postponement to May 2004, during which time a degree of mutual trust between unionists and Sinn Féin might be established.
London appears to have some sympathy with Prof Bew's idea, while Dublin is totally against, saying it would be a denial of democracy. British sources wonder what is the point of holding May elections when, without a dramatic gesture from the IRA, it would just re-create the current deadlock.
Why not create additional time so that outstanding issues such as the IRA further proving its commitment to the peace process, policing, demilitarisation, criminal justice, human rights, etc can be fully resolved and then have elections.
Irish sources counter that even if a May election gives us Peter Robinson and Gerry Adams as prospective First and Deputy First Ministers - or even vice versa - then "that is what the people want, let's deal with it".
But that would mean the British government abandoning David Trimble and while it might not give him his exclusion motion, it is so far keeping faith with the First Minister. This,in the weeks and months ahead, could trigger serious tensions between the two governments.
GUBU indeed.