The 166 TDs chosen at the next election will not directly vote for a government. Instead, having first elected a ceann comhairle, the remaining 165 will, in the light of post-election consultations about the composition of a new administration, vote for one or other of the leaders of the two largest parties, writes Garret FitzGerald
Unless a very big shift takes place in public opinion in the intervening months before the election, the composition of the alternative administrations and the broad pattern of their respective support is already clear.
On the one hand, if Fianna Fáil losses can be contained, in the first vote for the office of taoiseach, Bertie Ahern might be re-elected by 83 or more TDs to lead a Fianna Fáil minority government - supported by the votes of his own party together with those of what will probably be a somewhat increased number of Sinn Féin TDs, and perhaps also some Independents.
Alternatively, if Mr Ahern is defeated in that vote, Enda Kenny would then be elected by the votes of his own party, of Labour, of the Greens (following post-election discussions with Fine Gael and Labour), and perhaps of some others, to lead what would probably be a three-party coalition.
For any other alternative to emerge at this stage there would have to be a much larger shift in the votes of the electorate in the months ahead than have emerged from the polls for a long time past.
But what about a possible Fianna Fáil/Labour government? That would become a possibility only if not just one of the two alternatives put before the electorate but both of them were to be rejected by the Dáil.
For that to happen though it would be necessary for some TD or TDs to oppose both of the initial nominations, or perhaps to oppose one and abstain on the other.
In principle this could happen: after the last election, four Independent TDs abstained in the vote that elected Mr Ahern as Taoiseach by 93 votes to 68. However on that occasion they could afford to abstain because their votes were not needed. After the next election the margin between the two alternative leaders is clearly likely to be much closer and the outcome is likely to be dependent on the votes of Independent TDs.
It is highly unlikely that in those circumstances, any Independent TD would choose to cause a stalemate by voting against both candidates, thus creating a deadlock out of which a majority Fianna Fáil/ Labour government might conceivably emerge.
By so doing that TD would risk depriving themselves of possible leverage exercisable through support for one or other of the alternative government formations between which the election will have been fought.
The same is true of the Sinn Féin TDs, because by voting against Mr Ahern as well as Mr Kenny, they would also be depriving themselves of the leverage they would enjoy by supporting a minority Fianna Fáil government.
Those media commentators who have chosen to play up the possibility of a Fianna Fáil/Labour combination as an alternative to the two administrations being put before the voters seem to me to ignore these political realities.
What of the Progressive Democrats? The chances of the present Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrat government being re-elected are now minimal, and they will certainly not want to vote for Mr Ahern as leader of a Fianna Fáil government put into and kept in office by Sinn Féin.
They might not be readily acceptable as members of a Fine Gael/ Labour/Green government. Although, I suppose they might conceivably try to force their way into such a government by threatening to vote against both candidates for taoiseach if they were to be excluded from such a government.
Whether they would be likely to push that to the point of creating the conditions required for the emergence of a Fianna Fáil/Labour government is quite another matter, for that would be the quickest way to lose their right-wing support.
For two reasons, the clear-cut choice between the two alternative administrations outlined above has not yet emerged clearly into the public view. Why is this?
First of all, the media has been preoccupied with trying to divide Labour by boosting the will-of-the-wisp idea of a Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition, and this has tended to distract attention from the actual choice that will face TDs in the aftermath of the election.
Second, the media also fell for the clever move made by Mr Ahern some months ago to distract attention from the fact that his return to power now almost certainly depends upon Sinn Féin support for his nomination as taoiseach.
He successfully confused all of the media earlier this year by giving an exclusive interview on this issue to the Sunday Independent, in which he said that he would not enter a coalition with Sinn Féin or make an agreement with it to support a Fianna Fáil government.
Outside of this column, that statement seems to have been accepted as excluding a Fianna Fáil government elected with Sinn Féin support, volunteered without prior agreement between the two parties.
By giving his statement exclusively to the Sunday Independent, the Taoiseach ensured that the paper that would have been most likely to expose this ploy would be silenced, at least temporarily, on this issue.
When we come nearer to the election, though, and when Fianna Fáil's difficulty in returning to office without Sinn Féin support becomes increasingly evident, the Opposition parties will certainly hammer home the fact that the only practicable alternative to a new rainbow coalition would be a Fianna Fáil government put into office and kept there by Sinn Féin votes in the Dáil.
This issue of Fianna Fáil dependence on Sinn Féin support is likely to have a significant effect on the way an important segment of the electorate will vote in the election.
When combined with the likely disappearance of Fine Gael's flukish negative seat bonus, which in the last election cost it an unprecedented 12 more seats than was warranted by the actual drop in its vote, this seems to me to increase significantly the chance of a change of government in the forthcoming election.