Ahern not merely kite-flying with remarks on immigrants

`When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions

`When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.' Four members of the Dail, three members of the same party, altogether five members of the Oireachtas in the short lifespan of the present Dail.

The passing of Michael Ferris was as unexpected as it was untimely. He had seldom seemed in better health since he had a bypass half a dozen years ago. Half joking, all in earnest, he had recently begun to joke that he would again be a candidate in any early general election.

Ruairi Quinn and his colleagues must be wondering what they have done to offend the gods. To lose three colleagues in less than as many years is a heavy toll indeed. Jim Kemmy, Pat Upton and now Michael Ferris. It was a reflective House that assembled on Wednesday morning to pay tribute to his memory, his innate decency and his sense of public service.

The most eloquent and moving recall of the man that Michael Ferris was came from his constituency colleague Therese Ahearn of Fine Gael. May he rest in peace.

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Drapier himself narrowly avoided an accident on Monday night when the news came over the car radio that Bertie Ahern had "ruled out" detention centres for immigrants. The statement, as faithfully broadcast by RTE, left the distinct impression that the Taoiseach was ticking off some errant junior minister. How does the man get away with it?

Yours truly is an attentive student of Bertiespeak but could make neither head nor tail of his subsequent interviews, except that again the impression left was that he never said anything about detention centres. Without having the original remarks on camera, journalists seem helpless in the face of Bertiespeak.

Even where he is on camera, as in the Spencer Dock "monstrosity" controversy, Bertie apparently was only speaking as one of the locals. Fans of Bertiespeak - with imaginative animation this could be our own home-grown Simpsons - believe it will bring him and Fianna Fail to an overall majority. Constant doublespeak will be his downfall, say his critics.

There can be little doubt, however, that the "detention centres" utterance represents more than merely kite-flying. Even if the kite - albeit a week later - is hauled down by Mary Harney, the subliminal message is that Fianna Fail is tougher than the rest on "refugees".

The Taoiseach will have the results of the focus groups. Immigration is an issue and, in the context of an election, is potentially a divisive and ugly issue.

John Bruton's statement in Lisbon cannot be gainsaid: "It's easy to take a high moral stance against xenophobia in Austria. It's not as easy to do it in your own street or constituency." This statement lumps Bruton in with Ruairi Quinn and Liz O'Donnell and, as far as the Fianna Fail strategists are concerned, that's just dandy.

Drapier's colleagues who still faithfully do the rounds of clinics tell him that, for many of those on the housing waiting lists, the emergent cry is "how come the refugees can get houses?" The statement from Australia will strike a chord with a critical sliver of the electorate, particularly in working-class Dublin constituencies, and nobody knows this better than Bertie.

As the Northern Ireland situation waxes and wanes, the very real prospect of getting the process back on the rails beckons. David Trimble should emerge strengthened from today's challenge to his leadership. In that sense, Martin Smyth may be doing Trimble and the cause of peace a service.

Both governments seem to recognise that the biggest threat is posed by allowing a vacuum to develop. Trimble's statement once more puts it up to the republican movement, and the two governments' choreography acknowledges the fact. Both governments will also have noted that Gerry Adams's call in the wake of the suspension of the institutions for a return to the streets brought little response.

The Government here seemed visibly relieved at the news from Liberty Hall that the latest social contract was accepted by a more comfortable margin than expected. However, the new PPF could scarcely have got off to a more inauspicious start than with the Dublin Bus strike. The very modest basic pay for doing a stressful job will earn the bus drivers many friends but their tactics may quickly test that support.

There is seething unrest in other sections of the workforce, much of it driven by house prices. Government initiatives have resulted in little other than escalating private rents. The house price situation could yet threaten the new agreement. The latest ESRI report adds a further dimension to the debate.

Drapier caught Mary Harney's plaintive claim that her Minimum Wage Bill has now attracted more scrutiny than the Finance Bill. It would appear that the Opposition have cleverly exploited the April 1st deadline for implementation of the minimum wage in order to extract several amendments to the Bill.

IN THE Dail, however, Harney forthrightly picked up the gauntlet thrown down by the Labour Party over the outburst by the Taxing Master on the conduct of current tribunals. Her frontbench ministerial colleagues looked none too happy as the Tanaiste made plain her disapproval of Mr Flynn's obiter dicta.

A full retraction and apology from Mr Flynn for his latest exceeding of his powers cannot be far away.

None of which is to say that Master Flynn's remarks will not have populist appeal. They will also be music to the ears of those who want the tribunals wound up. To end a lawyer's fattening exercise is the customary argument, but the real argument is the fear of the unknown.

One or other of the tribunals may yet prove a Trojan horse for Bertie Ahern's Government. It would suit well for the clamour to call them off to grow.