'A makeshift majority" was the phrase Seán Lemass used to pejoratively describe the combination of parties and independents put together in 1948 to elect the first inter-party government. The components of that coalition were motivated by a single objective, namely, to put de Valera out of government for the first time in 16 years, writes Noel Whelan.
Bertie Ahern and his deputy leader, Brian Cowen, have spent the last week and a half trying to put together what also has the appearance of a makeshift majority involving as it would Fianna Fáil, the Progressive Democrats, the Green Party and Independents. One significant difference between the line-up currently being explored from that cobbled together in 1948 is that 90 per cent of the Dáil votes that would make up the majority are from one party - Fianna Fáil, which, unlike 1948, is now in the coalition business.
However, Ahern has been trying to put together a majority which, as well as being somewhat "makeshift", is also designed to be a "make sure" majority. He wants to create a situation where he will not rely solely on the bare majority that the PDs and like-minded Independents would give him. Instead, he wants a belt and braces for five years by also signing up the Green Party and its six Dáil votes.
There are attractions for Fianna Fáil in this technicolour line-up. Having the PDs, Greens and Independents together restricts the power that any one group would wield over the government. If any of them cannot, in Séamus Brennan's memorable phrase, "take the heat" they can just get out of the kitchen without the government falling.
Bringing the PDs back into government will either ensure their survival or hasten their integration into Fianna Fáil. In their weakened condition the PDs would not long survive exposure on the opposition benches and might fall into the embrace of a resurgent Fine Gael. The demise of the PDs would benefit Fine Gael because it would leave it with no competition on its right flank.
Including the Greens would re-enforce Fianna Fáil's new positioning on the environment and underwrite Fianna Fáil's appeal to the commuter belt and other middle class constituencies. Ahern would also dislodge the Greens from the rainbow line-up likely to be offered as an alternative again at the next election.
One of Bertie Ahern's significant achievements as leader has been to make Fianna Fáil a sustainable coalition partner. If, after two full terms with the PDs, he can set Fianna Fáil up for a full five-year term in coalition with the Greens then he will bequeath to the party an unrivalled position at the fulcrum of government formation for the long-term future.
The various happenings since election day have, however, also shown another interesting feature of Ahern's modus operandi. The Greens booked the Mansion House for a 1,000-strong conference to consider any programme for government arising out of the negotiations, and throughout the six days of talks their negotiators have had to consult a "reference group" representing all levels of the party.
The reference group to which the Fianna Fáil team have reported has by contrast contained only one member, Bertie Ahern. No conference or ardfheis has been or will be arranged to approve any new programme for government.
More importantly there has been no meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party to discuss the outcome of the election or to consider options for government formation.
If the 2002 situation is anything to go by then the new Fianna Fáil parliamentary party will be lucky to see the next programme for government before it goes to print, let alone be consulted on it in any meaningful way in advance.
Fianna Fáil has had a more centralised command structure under Ahern than under any previous leader. Until recently he held almost absolute authority within the party on all major political decisions. This dominance has been diluted of late only to the extent that Brian Cowen has been consulted on issues like government formation. Ahern's centralised command has been tolerated in part because it has been largely benign but primarily because he has been so successful electorally and otherwise.
It is unlikely that parliamentarians or national executive members would have done anything other than support Ahern's strategy of opening simultaneous negotiations with the Progressive Democrats, the Green Party and Independents. If there had been any discussion, some might have expressed reservations about including the Green Party but would probably have left the final decision to Ahern.
His parliamentarians are all relieved at their recent electoral success and there is general and understandable confidence in Ahern's negotiating abilities. Most will be anxious not to rock the boat as Ahern prepares to dispense the spoils of two dozen or more ministerial offices. It is striking, however, that in the Ahern era even the formalities of calling meetings of the party's governing bodies and seeking their support for his approach are not felt to be necessary.