Yesterday saw the first of at least a dozen 'policy launches' by Fianna Fáil - and the general election hasn't been called yet, writes Miriam Donohoe
The game is on. Fianna Fáil came out yesterday with its pre-emptive strike before the general election is called, setting the tone for what promises to be a hotly contested battle in the weeks ahead.
While Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens have been rolling out commitments for change, action plans and policy documents on numerous issues almost daily since January, Fianna Fáil has gambled on holding fire until now in the hope that the Opposition would wear itself out as election day drew nearer.
To a packed gathering, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Minister for Finance Brian Cowen mapped out how Fianna Fáil would fund its election promises and manage the economy over the next five years. "Prudence" was the word of the day.
Central to the party's election game plan is delivering the National Development Plan and convincing the public that a Fianna Fáil-led government would be the best manager of the economy over the next five years, particularly in the current uneasy climate of increased job losses, interest rates rises and a slowdown in the property market.
"We may have been quiet on the policy front since the start of the year but we hadn't gone away, you know," one party source said after yesterday's launch.
Fianna Fáil is promising a budget surplus each year and a near wiping out of net national debt by the end of the government's term in office, while at the same time meeting all of the commitments that Mr Ahern announced at the ardfheis in March. It says its economic agenda for the next five years is based on a set of "realistic and underlying assumptions" based on an average economic growth rate of 4.5 per cent in real terms.
The document puts a costing on all of the ardfheis promises each year over the next five years, including the hiring of 4,000 more teachers, 2,000 gardaí and 2,000 hospital consultants, the provision of 500 new hospital beds, an increase in primary school capacity, as well as its tax-cutting commitments.
The message in the economic document, titled Protective Prosperity: The Next Steps Forward, was clear: Fianna Fáil would deliver on all its commitments while ensuring a strong budget balance.
The party's campaign will gain momentum in the next two to three weeks with more than a dozen policy launches covering areas such as crime, pensions, schools investment, health, transport, children, agriculture, the environment and science and innovation. With the financial framework for the next five years spelt out, and with detailed policies to be unveiled over the next few weeks, the Taoiseach will then call the election. The best bets at the moment are May 24th or 31st.
Fianna Fáil is the only party so far to supply exact details of its budgetary framework for government and to cost all of its spending commitments for the forthcoming election. Party insiders are gleeful about the fact that the economic manifesto of the alternative Fine Gael-Labour coalition - expected more than a month ago - has been delayed due to the fact they have so far failed to agree on a time frame for the introduction of their stamp duty reform proposals. That manifesto is due to be published this Thursday.
Fine Gael wants the reform to include the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers on houses costing less than €450,000, and a simplification of the stamp duty bands to be spread over three years, but Labour is resisting, arguing that any phased introduction would unbalance the property market.
Support for Labour's position came, interestingly enough, from the Minister for Finance, who has said the Fine Gael proposal is "daft" and would disrupt the housing market, put thousands of jobs at risk and threaten the value of everyone's house.
But while Mr Cowen spoke yesterday of what would be bad for the housing market, there was still no sign of Fianna Fáil offering its own views on assistance for first-time buyers, whether through stamp duty reform or other measures. This will be a major battleground during the election and one Fianna Fáil will ignore at its peril.
There is also the fact that it was the Progressive Democrats, Fianna Fáil's partners in Government and preferred future partners, who first raised the sticky issue of stamp duty reform last September, and promised at its ardfheis in February to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers and reduce the impact on all owner-occupiers.
Mr Cowen got tetchy yesterday when asked if the Government intended to take an initiative on stamp duty, insisting that nothing would be done to disrupt the market.
But, when pressed, he didn't rule out the party offering some other sweetener for house buyers before the election.
He said it had been the policy of successive governments to concentrate on first-time buyers.
"That has always been the position because they are the lifeblood, if you like, of a planned, growing construction industry on the housing side, so that people who are coming into the market, first-time buyers, have access to getting on the rung as early as possible. So that's our position on that and I am not entering into any other speculation on it."
Fianna Fáil's backroom team was yesterday insisting that the party has had a clear strategy in place on the approach to this election since last year, and insisted that Mr Ahern's ardfheis promises, which came as a huge surprise to many in Fianna Fáil - including, apparently, some Government Ministers - was all part of the plan.
It insisted that the intention was to outline the promises at the ardfheis, followed by a detailed costing with a strong "prudence" message to the electorate, and then go into full election campaign mode on a strong footing.
There is an element of "making it up as you go along" about this argument.
There is a strong view that the original plan was to give little away at the ardfheis, as Minister for Social Affairs Séamus Brennan indicated four days previously at a press conference launching details of the event. He said Fianna Fáil would "promise less and deliver more".
It has been speculated that unease among Fianna Fáil backbenchers, who felt the party was timing its entry too late, probably prompted the last-minute ardfheis "auction", as the Opposition has labelled it.
But any backbench unease has been assuaged by the promises delivered in the ardfheis last month, followed by yesterday's commitment by the Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance to show us the money.