Is it all over bar the shouting? Has the Belfast Agreement to fall to keep Mr David Trimble in the leadership and to give the Ulster Unionist Party a platform to fight for supremacy over the Democratic Unionist Party in the Assembly elections next May?
So it would seem, superficially at least, listening to Mr Jeffrey Donaldson's interpretation of the motion passed at the Ulster Unionist Council's meeting at the weekend. Having shown a remarkable resilience throughout all the political upheavals of the last four years, only a reckless optimist could argue that the Agreement is not in serious trouble.
But, all is not lost yet. Mr Donaldson was firmly in the driving seat and Mr Trimble had to put party before the inclusive politics of the peace process in order to survive on Saturday. The compromise motion passed by the UUC, however, is not as bleak as Mr Donaldson would have liked. It does not set a firm deadline of January 18th next for the complete disbandment of the IRA.
There is some wriggle room to be found in the compromise agreed between Mr Donaldson and Mr Trimble. The Ulster Unionist Party will, with immediate effect, adopt a policy of non-participation with Sinn Féin in meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council. It will not pull out altogether. And, the motion commits Ministers to resign from the Northern Ireland Executive on January 18th unless "it has been demonstrably established that a real and genuine transition is proceeding to a conclusion".
Politics is still in play. It is the responsibility of the Irish and British Governments now, under the Agreement, to address the difficulties arising in its implementation. Notice has been served that there are four months to go before Mr Trimble's Ministers pull out of the Executive. Another round of intense negotiations with all of the pro-agreement parties will get under way.
It would be a grave mistake, however, to underestimate the threat posed to the Agreement and its institutions by the latest developments. Mr Trimble implicitly acknowledged that his leadership was in dire trouble when he agreed to the compromise motion. He had to adopt a hard line to survive. He is now set to position his party outside of the Executive and the North-South Ministerial Council in the run-up to the Assembly elections early next year. It is difficult to see how any conceivable inter-governmental fudge on policing, decommissioning, or both, can restore his authority in the period immediately ahead.
Mr Trimble may have cried "Wolf" in the past. He pulled his party out of dealings with Sinn Féin in the North-South Ministerial Council before. He, and all other parties, survived the suspension of the Executive. But Sinn Féin should be in no doubt that his problems are real this time.The pace of change at which they and the IRA move forward will effectively dictate the fate of the Agreement.