The Irish and British governments have rebuffed efforts by the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party to circumvent key elements of the Belfast Agreement and provide for Assembly oversight powers in the absence of a power-sharing executive. That is as it should be. The adoption of an a la carte approach to the agreement at this stage would inevitably lead to its dissolution and shatter the progress that was so painstakingly made during the past decade.
Serious problems persist. The unionist community has lost faith in the ability of the Belfast Agreement to deliver on its initial promise. Sinn Féin has yet to acknowledge the need for republicans to participate in a normal policing system, though the IRA has decommissioned its weapons. Fear and distrust, facilitated by the conflicting aims and aspirations of the two communities, have grown in the absence of decisive political leadership.
These issues - and the potential for political progress - were explored during a meeting in Dublin yesterday involving the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern and the British prime minister, Tony Blair. But, in the shadow of a report from the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) that is expected to find members of the IRA have been engaged in criminal activity, the outlook was grey. The IMC report is said to be generally positive. But questions raised about IRA involvement in money-laundering and criminal activity will provide some justification for the DUP leader, Ian Paisley, to avoid talks with Sinn Féin.
In spite of that, a joint statement from Mr Ahern and Mr Blair identified the restoration of devolved institutions and the establishment of new policing arrangements as the main focus of talks that will begin in Northern Ireland on February 6th. It looked forward to a more positive report from the IMC concerning IRA activity next April. And it offered support for those people seeking an end to loyalist paramilitary and criminal activity and the decommissioning of weapons.
There is a long way to go in the "normalisation" of society in Northern Ireland. But, as the two leaders emphasised, a prolonged stalemate could damage the agreement which has provided the basis for unprecedented peace, prosperity and economic growth. Difficulties were recognised. Not least in relation to contentious Orange parades and loyalist paramilitary activity. But slow progress is being made. Last year, the Taoiseach publicly declared the constitutional question had been settled in relation to Northern Ireland and there was no workable alternative to the Belfast Agreement. That statement, along with carefully balanced safeguards built into the agreement, should provide a useful antidote to loyalist fears. In the nature of things, however, government reassurances are rarely sufficient. It is likely to take face-to-face negotiations between the DUP and Sinn Féin, along with the involvement of the SDLP, the UUP and Alliance parties, to build trust and establish the foundations for a new departure.