Inside politics:TDs are on tenterhooks waiting for the announcement of the new constituency boundaries later this month. However, there has been little or no comment from any quarter about the constitutional provision that obliges the Constituency Commission to come up with a skewed provision of Dáil seats in proportion to eligible voters, writes Stephen Collins.
The basic problem is that the Constitution sets out the parameters governing the number of TDs in terms of the population in a constituency rather than the number of voters or the number of citizens. In the past this did not matter much as almost the entire adult population were Irish citizens and thus eligible to vote.
However, this time around things are very different, following the influx of immigrants over the past decade. There is no longer a direct correlation between the population of a constituency and the number of eligible voters.
The 2006 census figures graphically illustrate the problem as they reveal that close to half a million people in the Republic are not of Irish nationality.
The most obvious example is the three-seat constituency of Dublin West where the population jumped by a dramatic 27 per cent between 2002 and 2006 from 73,186 to 91,968. When this was first revealed in the preliminary census figures last year there was considerable comment about the fact that the population of the constituency exceeded the constitutional limit of 90,000 for a three-seat constituency.
The situation in the constituency formed part of the High Court case taken by two Independent TDs arguing that the 2007 election was being held on an illegal basis as there was an unacceptable disproportion of TDs to population in different constituencies. While the action failed it is widely expected that the current Constituency Commission will address the problem by giving an extra seat to Dublin West.
However, the detailed figures produced in final census figures released in recent months have put the position in Dublin West into a new context. They reveal that a quarter of the population in the constituency is not part of the group from which the electorate is drawn. Just 72,763 of the constituency population have Irish nationality and the electorate is drawn from that figure along with the 1,495 British nationals living in Dublin West.
British citizens are entitled to vote in the Republic because of the reciprocal arrangements which have always applied to Irish people living in Britain.
There are 1,819 Poles, 1,434 Lithuanians, 2,900 people from other EU states living in Dublin West as well as over 10,000 from the rest of the world, and 1,217 who did not state their nationality. Nobody in any of these categories is entitled to vote in a Dáil election yet the constituency will be revised on the basis that they are assumed to have that right.
It is certainly arguable that an extra seat for the constituency is actually unwarranted but the Constituency Commission has no choice but to abide by the constitutional provision and give the area an extra seat or devise some new arrangement with the neighbouring constituency of Dublin North which was the next in line in terms of a disproportion of population to TDs.
The constituency with by far the highest number of people not eligible to vote is the Taoiseach's own Dublin Central. The statistics for it are quite startling and reveal that over a quarter of the population in Dublin Central have a nationality other than Irish. There are almost 14,000 people in the constituency from other EU states, 11,500 from the rest of the world and 3,120 who decline to state a nationality.
In political terms it means that the population from which eligible voters are drawn is actually less than the minimum of 20,000 per TD envisaged in the Constitution.
The opposite is the case in Dún Laoghaire, which is widely expected to lose a seat in the revision. There, although the population has declined slightly since 2002, the vast proportion of those over 18 are actually entitled to vote.
The same applies in Kerry, which is also expected to lose a seat. The upshot is that constituencies which have a high proportion of immigrants will actually be over represented in the next Dáil in terms of the proportion of TDs to voters.
Of course immigrants do have as much need, if not more, to have their interests represented by TDs. However, they are not entitled to vote unless they become Irish citizens and there is certainly something incongruous about changing constituency boundaries on the basis of changes in population that do not correspond with changes in the numbers entitled to vote.
Local elections, where immigrants are entitled to vote, are a different matter. In the next local elections in less than two years time they could have a decisive impact in the areas where they are concentrated. For instance the 3,000 Poles in Galway could easily elect one of their number to a local authority while the 2,426 Lithuanians in Cavan Monaghan could have a similar impact and the position is replicated in other areas.
In terms of the new Dáil boundaries and the allocation of seats it will be interesting to see if the Constituency Commission makes any allowances for what it must surely know is a serious anomaly in the constitutional position. It may prompt a report recommending the minimum changes as distinct from the wholesale changes that most people are expecting.