Humiliated and down to a mere 31 TDs, Fine Gael issearching for a new leader and a new role. But its decision to hold an earlyleadership contest may not please the rank and file of the party, writesMark Hennessy, Political Reporter
In between the heavy showers, members of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party strolled outside the CityWest Hotel on the outskirts of Dublin earlier this week, perhaps in search of inspiration.
They certainly need large helpings of it. Drubbed in the general election, the party lost its leader, Mr Michael Noonan, 23 Dáil seats and its remaining hold in a number of constituencies.
Now it is faced with the choice of choosing Carlow/Kilkenny TD Mr Phil Hogan, Mayo's Mr Enda Kenny, or Dublin North Central's Mr Richard Bruton, or, possibly, Dublin South Central's Mr Gay Mitchell.
None of the four is tailor-made for the job. Hogan has organisational skills and an ability to graft, but is weak on policy issues; Kenny is extremely bright and personable, but often less than committed.
The intellectual superior of the four, Richard Bruton, is the ultimate "policy wonk", happiest under a pile of paper, though he has so far seemed unable to communicate his hunger for the job.
Mitchell, on the other hand, is loyal, sharp-witted, utterly political and could teach a few of his Parliamentary Party colleagues lessons on the value of hard work. And he has a clear view of where the party should be positioned.
However, his abrasive personality tends to cause divisions rather than harmony and his refusal to include his name in a straw poll of the Parliamentary Party on Wednesday leaves him with ground to make up.
The role and motives of the party's former leader, Mr John Bruton, in recent days have continued to bemuse some members of the Parliamentary Party, and to raise strong suspicions amongst others.
During the two-day meeting, Mr Bruton spoke frequently and at length. He was the one who first thought up the idea of a taking a straw poll. And he opposed waiting until the new Seanad is elected.
The explanation is obvious to some: "Hogan, Kenny and his brother, Richard, were all his people. He hoped that the straw poll would leave one clearly in the lead. He hoped that they would sort it out amongst themselves," said one TD.
However, the poll, voted in by 38 of the 49 available members, failed to clear the ground, though it is believed that Hogan has a slight advantage, followed by Kenny, with Richard Bruton just a little further behind.
The ranking could easily change between now and next Wednesday's 2 p.m. meeting, particularly once TDs and Senators take further soundings from the constituency organisations this weekend.
The decision to hold the election quickly goes against much of grassroots opinion, particularly since the ardfheis in February demanded that constituency organisations should control 30 per cent of any future leadership votes.
However, the majority of the Parliamentary Party have convinced themselves, or been convinced, that they must have a candidate to nominate for the post of Taoiseach when the Dáil resumes next Thursday.
The alternative, they argue, would be too much of a humiliation for a party that traces its roots back to Michael Collins and stills sees itself as the cornerstone of democracy.
A speedy election creates its own dynamic.
Outgoing senators will have a vote and encouragement to choose the person who will protect them most from predatory attacks by defeated TDs now in search of a new role.
Their existence is equally threatened by the determination of party organisers to ensure that the Seanad is used ruthlessly in future as a breeding ground for new, upcoming hopefuls.
Each constituency can nominate one candidate for the Upper House. The closing date for these passed last Tuesday. However, the parliamentary party can nominate 15 more, and the executive council another five.
Fine Gael's executive council will not finally sign off on the party's final list of runners for about another 10 days, and with plenty of time left for changes to accommodate key supporters.
The wipe-out that took place on May 17th amongst Fine Gael's urban TDs, particularly in Dublin, should benefit Hogan and Kenny at the expense of Bruton, party insiders believe.
Of the four, Mr Kenny is only one who has been down this road before. In February 2001, he lost by 44 votes to 28 in a run-off with Michael Noonan, and many of his votes came from Fine Gael's rural heartlands.
More than a few of Mr Kenny's 28 have, however, fallen by the wayside: Louis Belton, Andrew Boylan, Donal Carey, Jim Higgins, Michael D'Arcy, Brendan McGahon have lost their seats, or retired.
Phil Hogan and Richard Bruton will not be voting for him, while Longford /Roscommon TD Denis Naughten is nudging towards Hogan's camp, if sources can be believed.
"Look, the reality is that a lot of people who voted for Enda the last time would not have done so if they thought then that he had a real chance of winning it. It was an anti-Noonan vote, not a pro-Kenny one," said one.
Still, one party insider said: "I have to say that I am surprised that Kenny is second at the moment, as we think that he is. I would have expected him to have much less support."
So far, the performance of the 29-year-old Naughten has interested many. In little more a week of speculation about his own ambitions for the leadership, he has become one of the party's better known names.
However, his star has been hurt, following a newspaper report that Hogan had offered him the deputy leadership, and that he had refused it over a drink in CityWest in the early hours. "People are damn well not amused," said one TD.
Once chosen, the new Fine Gael leader will be living proof that the only 30 seconds of happiness in a politician's life comes when he is being raised shoulder high on election night. From then on, it is downhill.
The party's very future is in doubt. Its brand image is unclear. Organisationally, it is a mess. Potential new stars are rare on the ground, and even more rarely supported when they do exist.
Despite Fine Gael's belief that it had to rush to fill the vacuum left by Mr Noonan's resignation, a public focused on the World Cup will probably will not care very much.