Inside Politics:The Progressive Democrats may be back in government for a third successive term, but the future for the party has never looked more bleak. Just six months after its 21st birthday, the longest-lived and most successful small party in the history of the State took such an electoral hammering that its long-term recovery prospects seem slim, writes Stephen Collins.
Party members wishing to console themselves with dreams of a revival can point to the fact that they have consistently defied the prophets of doom since December 1985. However, this time around, reduced to just two Dáil seats, the omens have never been as bad.
To add to the party's woes, the acting leader, Mary Harney, made up her mind before the general election that she would not be running again, having already spent 30 years in national politics. Unless she can be persuaded to reconsider her position it is very difficult to see how the PDs can avoid extinction next time out.
The other surviving TD, Noel Grealish, may well survive into the 31st Dáil. By getting elected against the odds in Galway West, not once but twice, he has demonstrated rare skill. That should guarantee him a seat well into the future, if he wants it, but a party of one TD could hardly survive for long.
The decision of the PD national executive on Thursday night to take its time considering the rule changes required to find a new leader from outside the ranks of its two TDs was a wise one. The rule will certainly have to be changed, but there is no point rushing into it, particularly as there is no urgency about finding a new leader.
The summer break will give Harney the time to consider whether she might, after all, be persuaded to stay on in the post. At the very least, it will give the members time to weigh up the options facing them and look into the future with a cold eye.
Former Laois/Offaly TD Tom Parlon is believed to be interested in taking over the leadership. He would bring the experience of his years as a farmers' leader and a junior minister to the role, but it would mark a huge change for the party. Whether it could reinvent itself in such circumstances is doubtful, particularly as Parlon will have great difficulty making it back to the Dáil.
One strategy for him would be to stand in Dublin Mid-West if Harney carries through her intention not to run again, but the obstacles to being elected there might be every bit as great as those in Laois/Offaly.
Given that no decision is going to be made until the autumn at least, there is time for a challenger to emerge, but it is difficult to see who that person might be.
While the PDs undoubtedly contributed to their own destruction by twice vacillating on the issue of Bertie Ahern's finances, their near-eradication on election day was an accident waiting to happen. It is arguable that, if Michael McDowell had made a bold move last October and pulled out of government over Bertie Ahern's finances, the party might have been able to make a case during the election campaign as to its relevance in terms of insisting on basic standards in public life.
However, given the apparent tolerance of a significant segment of the electorate for low standards in high places over the past 40 years, it is equally arguable that pulling out of government would not have made a whit of difference to the party's fate. McDowell probably cost himself his own seat by not being more decisive, but the party would most likely have sustained serious losses one way or another.
Since the PDs burst on to the scene at the end of 1985 the party has oscillated between triumph and disaster at each succeeding election. They surprised everybody by winning 14 seats in their first election in 1987 and the surprise was almost as great when they dropped to six in 1989. It was back up to 10 in 1992, down to four in 1987, up to eight in 2002 and down to two last month.
On the basis of that history, the chances of a mini-revival at the next election cannot be entirely ruled out. The problem is that the PDs may now have dropped below the point of critical mass required for a comeback.
The party won 12 per cent of the vote in its first election in 1987 but that dropped steeply to 5.5 per cent in 1989. It dropped again to precisely 4.68 per cent in 1992 and 1997 and then fell again to 3.96 per cent in 2002. This time it was just 2.73 per cent. The trend in votes has all been one way, even if the seats total has varied over the years.
For a year before this May's election it was clear that Fine Gael was on the way back and the only question was whether that party would do well enough to get into government. A Fine Gael revival always spelled doom for the PDs, as the fortunes of the two parties are inextricably linked.
The problem facing the PDs in the future is that Fine Gael is poised to improve further at the next election. Once the party leadership gets over the bitter disappointment of failing to make it into office, Fine Gael can realistically aim to gain a significant number of extra seats next time. The losses sustained by the Independents and the failure of all the smaller parties, to one extent or another, has left Fine Gael in a very strong position to benefit from any Government unpopularity.
By tying themselves to Fianna Fáil once more, the remnants of the PDs may have signed their death warrant. If the next election boils down to whether this country is effectively on the road to being a one-party state, the PDs may find it impossible to make themselves relevant to the outcome.
It was this danger that prompted Paul Mackay, one of the four people who helped to found the party, to write to Mary Harney, imploring her not to go back into office with "Bertie Ahern and his Fianna Fáil cronies" for another term.
"We will be seen as a downtown sub-office of Fianna Fáil," said Mackay, who added: "Fianna Fáil has not yet rid itself of the image nor of certain individuals who were acolytes supporting and colluding with Haughey, its former crooked leader."
Harney ignored the advice and responded sharply to Mackay, pointing out that she did not recall him expressing such views before or during the general election campaign.
Given the dreadfully weak position of the PDs after the election, it was probably inevitable that the party would grasp the opportunity of a lifeline and go back into government.
Nonetheless, Mackay did have a point, particularly as the PDs do not even have the leverage of being able to threaten to pull out of government. With the Greens in the coalition, the Taoiseach can rest assured that he will remain securely in office if either of his coalition partners pulls out. Only if they leave together will he have a problem.
During the 2002 election Harney said that she saw no point in going into government with Fianna Fáil if the major party did not need the PDs, but that is what she has done now. She did have the option of trying to form a government with Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens, although that would, admittedly, have been a very difficult feat to achieve and then sustain. The animosity of Labour to her policy of hospital co-location was probably an insurmountable impediment but, given the desperation of all concerned to get into office, it might have been overcome.
The advantage from a PD point of view of going with the alternative option was that it would have demonstrated that the party was not tied to Fianna Fáil. That was also an argument for going into opposition, unpalatable as that might have seemed. In terms of its future prospects, being in opposition could hardly be any worse than being in government. While the attractions were hard to resist, the party's role in Bertie Ahern's third coalition could well be the last chapter in the story of the PDs.