The curtain is coming down on a traumatic year. We must look to the future and the opportunities it holds, writes PATSY McGARRY
JUST A few more hours left and it will be gone. Few will regret the demise of 2010, a year of great cold and national humiliation. It may also be the year which marks the end of Ireland’s turbulent 20th century. Few will regret that either. In the decade ahead, we will have leisurely opportunity to reflect on it all.
We will witness the centenary of the 1913 Dublin lock-out, of the Government of Ireland (Home Rule) Act of 1914, the Rising of 1916, the wipe-out of the Irish Parliamentary Party by Sinn Féin in the general election of 1918, the first Dáil in 1919, the War of Independence thereafter and the establishment of this State in 1922.
There will be much interrogation of the overwhelming question “Was it for this . . .?”
More than most, Fianna Fáil, which has been in government for 60 years of this State’s 88-year existence, has much to contemplate. In 2011, its very raison d’être will be questioned.
Traditionally, the unity of the island and revival of the Irish language have been two of its central aims. In 1998, we agreed by referendum that such unity will happen only with the consent of a majority in Northern Ireland. When it comes to the Irish language, there is little difference in the commitment of any of our political parties. You may read that as you will.
Which leaves Fianna Fáils handling of the economy, an area where it was traditionally trusted. A headline in this newspaper last Monday sums that up, “Largest number of people leaving country since 1989”.
Lamentation once again.
As worrying for Fianna Fáil was the finding in that recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll which showed its support is strongest among the over-65s, followed by the 50-64 age group. Its lowest support is among 25-34 year olds. Older supporters are most likely to vote but they are also the most disillusioned. Many, particularly hardcore Fianna Fáilers, will not vote at all next time.
It is far too early to pronounce that the party is over, but Fianna Fáil is facing the fight of its life in the coming general election.
On the other hand, Fine Gael and Labour have never been presented with such opportunity.
In the play Julius Caesar, Brutus tells Cassius, "There is a tide in the affairs of men/Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune . . ." We are at such a tidal moment in Irish public affairs.
Fine Gael and Labour must seize the day. For Fine Gael the future looks bright. After the next election, it will be the biggest party in the State for the first time since its antecedent Cumann na nGaedheal lost power in 1932.
That is quite an achievement. In the 2002 general election, it faced near-death, returning to Leinster House with just 31 seats. Its support has grown steadily since then, with that recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll showing the party strong across all regions, social categories and age groups.
Credit where it’s due – such success is down to the leadership of Enda Kenny. He may be a poor public speaker and a poor Dáil performer but he clearly has talent and ability.
For Labour too the coming year presents unprecedented promise. Its leader, Eamon Gilmore, is by far the public’s preferred taoiseach in poll after poll. A peculiar feature of Labour’s support is that it is strongest among the best-off AB voters and weakest among the poorest DE category. It is the exact opposite of what you would expect of a labour party. Social conscience is not generally associated with the better-off.
Another unusual feature is that, on average, its TDs are the oldest in Leinster House. For many this will, most likely, be their last time to stand for election.
It may lead to temptation.
The party may grasp at a probable opportunity to have the first Labour taoiseach in the history of the State next year. That might be done by going into government with a depleted Fianna Fáil and with the support of Independents. Shocking for some, but possible.
Earlier this month, in these pages Dr Garret FitzGerald, following analysis of the 43 constituencies and of opinion polls, concluded that Fine Gael would get 64 seats in the next election, Labour 48, Fianna Fáil 36, Sinn Féin nine and Independents nine.
Looked at generally, such figures indicate a Labour/FF coalition government (of 84 seats) with the support of Independents could be on the cards. People may wince at this but they should recall that Des O’Malley’s PDs made Charles Haughey taoiseach in 1989 and John Gormley’s Green Party made Bertie Ahern taoiseach in 2007.
Anathema is no obstacle in politics.
On the other hand, an expected Fine Gael/Labour coalition could have such a big majority it might become unstable. It is likely to be the biggest majority of any government in the history of the State.
People might recall where such majorities can lead. In the 1977 general election, Fianna Fáil secured its biggest majority, winning 84 seats. Within two years, its leader, taoiseach Jack Lynch, was deposed and Charles Haughey had taken his place. Within two more years, they were out of office.
As for the recently mooted so-called “coalition of the left”, it is highly unlikely as the Democratic Left element in the Labour Party would choke on its porridge at the prospect of going into government with Sinn Féin. Whatever, change lies ahead and that alone will be welcome. Tomorrow will see a new dawn on a new day in a new decade, and I hope you’ll be feeling good. Happy New Year.
John Waters is on leave