Assessing China's development

China's strong growth continues to draw investment and trade from the rest of the world, so much so that it is prudent to pay…

China's strong growth continues to draw investment and trade from the rest of the world, so much so that it is prudent to pay attention to the political conditions which underlie this economic performance.

United States secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld put his finger on the problem when he contrasted the country's economic and political reforms, and asked whether the difference between them is sustainable in the longer term. His question is apposite on the 16th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre of 125 mainly student protesters on June 4th, 1989, by Chinese troops and tanks. Will it be possible to combine a flourishing capitalist economy with a one-party dictatorship in the years to come?

Mr Rumsfeld believes there is a definite tension involved. He underlines the differences between China and India, which has an opening economy and a tradition of democratic rule in place since independence. Clearly the US is cultivating relations with India to offset China's growing influence in Asian and world affairs. Clearly, too, Mr Rumsfeld's role in strategic planning gives him a different perspective on China's position than that of the State Department, whose Secretary Condoleezza Rice has been much more engaged with the country's leadership. Both of them have stressed the need for ongoing political and human rights reforms as China's development proceeds apace.

A number of the reforms sought by the student leaders in 1989 have since been achieved, many of them by dint of the remarkable economic growth over the last decade. It is easier for Chinese citizens to move around the country and they have many more personal freedoms - especially the more prosperous of them making up its new middle class.

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But political power is still monopolised by the Communist Party, which controls the state and military machines. There has been minuscule progress towards political competition at local levels. Media freedoms are heavily circumscribed, meaning that campaigns to tackle corruption and reinforce the rule of law tend to founder. This has uncertain consequences in the the longer term for those investing in and dealing commercially with China.

The argument that the Tiananmen events were justified in the name of stability is still used by official spokesmen. China is a vast country with many social, geographical and economic contrasts, undergoing an unprecedented developmental journey. It must be allowed to do so at its own pace, its leaders insist. They will resent Mr Rumsfeld's remarks - but they should listen carefully to them. He also warns its neighbours about China's growing military strength; it tends to be matched with a growing nationalism, which many observers see as an alternative social glue to the waning appeal of communist ideology.

Even those most suspicious of Mr Rumsfeld's policies should pay close attention to these observations.