Israeli tourists in Mombasa have become the latest targets of terrorist attacks, just weeks after Australians were targeted in Bali. The casualties were mercifully light, after an Israeli airliner had an exceedingly lucky escape from a missile attack.
While these atrocities were claimed by a previously unheard of Palestinian group, they are widely believed to have been the work of the al-Qaeda network. Either way they underline the continuing problem of international terrorism and how it can best be tackled.
Israel's association with such attacks was reinforced by yesterday's shooting at a Likud meeting in the northern part of the country. They must be condemned and those individuals responsible sought out and punished. But the persisting nature of such acts of terrorism against Israelis pose deeper questions of why they recur so systematically and whether they can be prevented only by greater security and military counter-attacks. Unless they are accompanied by political engagement, dialogue and eventual agreement with those who can influence the support base on which such organisations draw, terrorism is likely to continue. It can be contained but not eliminated.
Although Israelis will be presented with a clearer choice about such strategies in next year's elections as a result of the victory of the dovish Mr Amram Mitzna in Labour's leadership contest, it looks as if the electorate is not willing to support his policies. Israelis will be even more vulnerable to terrorism in the event of a US-led war in Iraq, especially if it did not carry UN Security Council endorsement. It would provoke terrorism in response throughout the world; it would be foolish to think this could be prevented by a swift victory over the Saddam Hussein regime. Before that happened there is the risk that he would launch attacks on Israel in a desperate attempt to save himself.
The case made by President Bush's administration linking Iraq to the kinds of terrorist attacks in Mombasa and Israel yesterday remains very weak and has not been proven.
It is clear that the al-Qaeda network, or similar and related ones, retain the capacity to mount surprise actions against everyday targets such as these. That does not speak well of the year-long effort to track them down and destroy their organisation. The fear remains that they would be bolstered by an attack on Iraq, just as the complete impasse in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process prolongs the agony for Israeli citizens.