THE RESULTS of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll showing that the difficulties facing the Government in convincing the public that the establishment of a National Asset Management Agency (Nama) is the best way of removing bad loans from the banking system should not come as any great surprise. Some 40 per cent of voters do not support Nama. What is interesting in the current debate is that more than one-third of voters – 34 per cent – have no opinion. In contrast, the Labour Party's proposal to nationalise the banks attracted 36 per cent support, greater than Nama, but it is opposed by 38 per cent of voters.
We are between a rock and a hard place and, in these circumstances, compliant taxpayers do not welcome the bailout of the developers nor the banks at their own expense. But deep down in their consciousness, the poll suggests that there is an acceptance that something has to be done. Otherwise, Nama would be rejected by 90 per cent of the electorate and nationalisation would be accepted with a vengeance.
The complexity of the issues and a perception that the Government will pay the banks considerably more than their property portfolios are worth, because of a commitment to “long-term economic values”, lie at the heart of public concern. There is a worry that public money will be used to bail out speculative builders. Activity in the courts, where Liam Carroll’s Zoe developments secured the support of their main banks in an attempt to survive for long enough to be taken over by Nama, has created that suspicion.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has insisted the Government remains open to persuasion concerning the details of Nama legislation and the manner in which the banks will be paid for their toxic assets. He has not ruled out an effective nationalisation of banks. The Minister is in a difficult tactical position because Green Party Ministers and Opposition parties are all seeking to change his draft legislation. Early concessions would attract further demands.
The valuation of property lies at the heart of the Government’s difficulties. The Nama project will not be complete until that process is made known on September 16th. Expecting voters to support Nama before the valuation scheme is announced and evaluated would be like asking them to buy a pig in a poke. This conundrum could explain, in part, the findings for and against Nama and nationalisation in this poll.
Anger and distrust of bankers, developers and the Government has coloured public attitudes. Only 26 per cent of those questioned supported the Nama approach. Opposition to the idea crossed all age groups and social classes. It found favour only with a diminishing number of Fianna Fáil supporters. In contrast, the Labour Party’s proposal to nationalise the banks received majority support in Dublin and in Leinster and among the under 50s. Older voters opposed the idea.
The manner in which banks will be compensated for toxic property assets is under review. Compromise on these difficult issues by the Government and the Opposition parties is the most constructive way forward.