The prospect that the far-right Freedom Party could become part of the Austrian government has shocked its neighbours, provoking the other 14 European Union heads of state or government to issue an unprecedented warning that they will break off bilateral political contacts if such a coalition is formed. The party led by Mr Jorg Haider secured 27 per cent of the vote in last October's general elections on a xenophobic, anti-immigrant platform. He has made a series of ambiguously favourable comments about Nazi policies and leaders which remain in the public mind despite several disavowals and apologies.
His party's programme is better described as far-right populist than neo-fascist; but such distinctions are heavily context-specific - today's populist can readily become tomorrow's fascist if circumstances change. The programme combines several contradictory elements, including profound hostility to immigration, EU enlargement and foreign criticism; a great disenchantment with decades of corporatist power-sharing between the country's social and Christian democrats; and an appeal to working class concerns about the erosion of the welfare state.
Following the elections there was a prolonged and ultimately unsuccessful negotiation between the Socialist Party led by Mr Victor Klima and the conservative People's Party led by Mr Wolfgang Schussel. This reflected the deep cleavages in Austria's politics revealed by the election. The Socialists can govern only in coalition with the People's Party, according to this electoral arithmetic (although the latest opinion polls reveal strong increases in support for the Greens). When their negotiations broke down on budgetary policy and control of the department of finance Mr Klima failed to assemble parliamentary support for a minority government and Mr Schussel turned to the Freedom Party.
Through an alliance with them he can achieve a long-standing ambition to become federal chancellor. He can also implement long-standing policy goals to downsize the corporatist state system through privatisation, deregulation and budgetary balancing. He calculates that these objectives will contain the threatened collapse in support for his party and revive its fortunes; but if the coalition with the Freedom Party goes ahead Mr Schussel will be obliged perpetually to humour the Freedom Party in the knowledge that the next elections will probably give Mr Haider the majority he craves.
As an experienced minister for foreign affairs Mr Schussel will now have to take full account of the diplomatic costs of this project. Austria's political isolation threatens to be much more serious than during the time of Dr Kurt Waldheim's presidency. The current president, Mr Thomas Klestil, may conclude that Austria's national interest would be better served by fresh elections rather than such a perilous rightwing coalition. Austria's voters would in that case face a critical choice. Yesterday's warning by its EU partners is a remarkable and unprecedented intervention in Austria's domestic affairs. But it is justified by their concern to defend the values of human rights and fundamental freedoms as well as the commitment to continental enlargement that has become a central part of its development.