Bad News For The Coalition

The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll carry bad omens for the Government as it prepares for the resumption of…

The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll carry bad omens for the Government as it prepares for the resumption of the Dail next week. The nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the post of vice-president of the European Investment Bank precipitated a considerable drop in support for the two Coalition parties in June; the continuing controversy leading to Mr O'Flaherty's decision to withdraw his candidature at the end of last month, compounded by the overture to Mr Jim Mitchell, is still causing political reverberations into the autumn. Four months after the event, some 77 per cent of voters, among them 78 per cent of Fianna Fail and 95 per cent of Progressive Democrats supporters, still hold that the Government has been damaged by its handling of the affair.

The extent of that damage, revealed in today's poll, will cause serious concern to the Government as Ministers attempt to put the recent past behind them and chart a new course for the beginning of the political year. The Government's satisfaction rating is at its lowest level - 46 per cent, down five percentage points since June - since the formation of the Fianna Fail/PD minority Government in 1997. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is recording his lowest personal rating - 55 per cent, down nine percentage points since June - since he assumed office. The popularity of the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, has also dropped by four percentage points to its lowest rating with 42 per cent satisfied and 42 per cent dissatisfied with her performance.

It is not just the leaders who are presenting a bleak scenario for the Coalition parties. Fianna Fail's support stands at 45 per cent, the same as in June, but its core vote of 34 per cent is at its lowest level recorded. The number of undecided voters, 25 per cent, has increased to its highest level in more than four years. The PD vote has also dropped by one percentage point to three per cent, coming in behind Sinn Fein and the Green Party in support levels.

Though the present indicators for the Government parties are bad, there is no sign that the Opposition are making significant gains from their misfortunes. The Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, has improved his personal rating by one percentage point to 40 per cent while the Labour leader, Mr Quinn, has dropped five percentage points to 46 per cent in the same three-month period. The Fine Gael party has increased its support by a respectable four percentage points - only to return it to the 22 per cent rating it held last April. Labour has increased its support by a mere one percentage point to 14 per cent.

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The overall findings, including the fact that one-quarter of voters are in the undecided category, herald a robust opening to the new Dail session next week when the Government will be called to account for its handling of the inflation, health, housing and traffic issues as well as the summer developments in the O'Flaherty nomination. The Government is going back into the Dail maintaining, like a mantra, that the past is the past. What is abundantly clear from today's poll is that the voters do not share this view. The Coalition is still suffering from the EIB controversy and related events. And the contention by the Tanaiste and some other Ministers that it would all be forgotten in three or four months, is not borne out by the poll.