OPINION:Bahrain may be small but the currents stirring in the kingdom will reverberate far beyond its borders
THE PHONECALL came around 1am, shortly after Mohamed fled Lulu Square. He had run coughing and choking through clouds of tear gas as scores of baton-wielding riot police moved in to disperse his fellow protesters in the early hours of yesterday morning.
“I can’t believe what they are doing,” Mohamed told me in distraught tones as he gulped for air in between sentences.
“They’re beating people, including the elderly, and we can hear gunfire. It is chaos. Please tell everyone you know. They cannot be allowed get away with this.”
Mohamed, an activist in his 20s from the Gulf, had spent the previous days with the thousands of protesters who had converged on Lulu Square in the Bahraini capital Manama, chanting slogans that echoed those heard last week in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and last month on the streets of Tunis.
“There are so many people here,” he said during a phone call earlier this week. “Everyone is inspired by what happened in Egypt.”
Within hours of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak stepping down last Friday, many in the region wondered where the next serious protests might unfold – Yemen, perhaps, or Algeria. Others mused on the possible fallout in neighbouring Libya. Still others questioned how well King Abdullah was faring in Jordan. Few would have chosen the tiny Gulf island of Bahrain as the most likely candidate.
For expats, who make up half of Bahrain’s population of 1.3 million, the kingdom can appear sleepy, but simmering below the surface are long-standing tensions between a government led by the ruling Sunni al-Khalifa dynasty and a majority Shia population that feels discriminated against when it comes to state jobs and housing.
The Shia opposition has demanded a more democratic constitution and a change of government.
It wants King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to sack his uncle, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, who has been prime minister for four decades. Ten years ago the government introduced a new constitution and parliamentary elections to help quash a sustained period of Shia unrest, but tensions have returned in recent years as Shias grew impatient with a toothless assembly and the glacial pace of reform.
Yesterday’s violent crackdown, which claimed the lives of at least three protesters, came on the fourth consecutive day of rallies since Bahraini activists called for a Youm al Ghadab (Day of Rage) on February 14th. Storm clouds had already been gathering. In September, 23 leading dissidents were jailed. Last week, a nervous King Hamad announced that every family would receive a gift of 1,000 dinars (€1,960) in an apparent bid to stave off any Egypt-inspired protests.
The deaths of two protesters earlier this week prompted the king to issue a televised apology and pledge to investigate police brutality – a promise that rings hollow in the light of yesterday’s violence.
Bahrain may be small but the currents roiling the kingdom will reverberate far beyond its borders. A key strategic ally for Washington, the island hosts the main US naval base in the Middle East which is home to the US navy’s Fifth Fleet.
A causeway across a narrow bay links Bahrain to Saudi Arabia where a Shia minority, mostly concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern Province, has also long grumbled over political and economic marginalisation.
Some regional analysts warn that Saudi Shias could be tempted to follow the example of their Bahraini co-religionists.
Underpinning the situation is long-standing anxiety in official Bahraini circles over foreign – read Iranian – influence from across the Gulf. Others argue that to view the Bahraini protests only through the prism of sectarian tensions is to misread them.
While the demonstrations are backed by the main Shia opposition bloc, those taking part in the rallies have not been exclusively Shia, and Bahrainis of all shades have railed against corruption, inequality and the lack of parliamentary clout.
The protests in Manama chime in many respects with those that helped topple Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia – many of the demonstrators are young, media-savvy Arabs who, due to internet and satellite TV, have been exposed to ideas and worlds unknown to previous generations. Their slogans are to do with freedom, justice and the desire for greater political participation.
Troops in tanks and armoured personnel carriers have now been deployed to key areas in Manama to prevent crowds gathering. Bahraini authorities claim to have the situation under control. But the use of force to disperse peaceful protesters will not be easily forgotten, particularly in light of what has transpired in Egypt and Tunisia.
Elsewhere, the tremors of what many Arab commentators refer to as an “earthquake” across the region are still being felt.
In Libya, where protests have broken out in several cities, a number of fatalities have been reported. More demonstrations are planned in Yemen and Algeria.
The Arab winter of discontent that began with a young Tunisian fruit seller’s self-immolation looks like it will continue well into spring.
Mary Fitzgerald is Foreign Affairs Correspondent