Mary Banotti believes that Ireland will not now ratify the Nice Treaty.While this was dismissed last night as defeatist by some of hercolleagues in the European Parliament, her analysis of last week'sgeneral election result is widely shared in Brussels, writesDenis Staunton
When Romano Prodi spoke to the European Parliament yesterday, his eyes glowed with a vision of a more democratic, effective Europe which could protect humane values in a globalised world.
In an eloquent speech, he called for an enhanced role for the Commission, stressing its role as a guarantor of the interests of all EU member-states, large and small.
But as the Commission President spoke about Europe's future, Mary Banotti, one of Ireland's most experienced European politicians, was in despair. The Nice Treaty was finished and the Government should abandon plans to put it to the people in a second referendum.
"I regret that it is now my belief, following the election in Ireland, that the ratification of the Nice Treaty is doomed. I believe that unless there is a miracle in Ireland, the treaty is lost," the Fine Gael MEP said.
Ms Banotti's intervention will irk the Government and it was dismissed last night as defeatist by some of her colleagues in the European Parliament. Yet her analysis of last week's election result is widely shared in Brussels and in other European capitals, where many policy-makers have already written off the Nice Treaty as a dead letter.
The success of anti-Nice parties, such as Sinn Féin and the Greens, was expected but the poor performances of Ireland's most overtly pro-European parties, Fine Gael and Labour, came as a shock to Europeans who watch Irish politics.
Few doubt the Taoiseach's commitment to winning a second referendum but the last campaign showed little evidence that his enthusiasm is widely shared within Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats.
A statement during the election campaign by Charlie McCreevy that appeared to blame the Commission for the rise of the far-right in Europe confirmed the view of many in Brussels that the Government is at best lukewarm about European integration. And few expect Mr Prodi's proposals for new Commission powers to receive a welcome from the Government or from its representative at the Convention on the Future of Europe, Ray MacSharry.
Mr Prodi wants the Commission to receive new powers to influence national budgets and to play the leading role in Europe's Common Foreign and Security Policy.
Under his proposals, foreign policy issues - including military operations by the EU Rapid Reaction Force - would be decided by qualified majority voting. Neutral member-states such as Ireland would not be obliged to take part in any military operation but they could not veto EU military plans.
The Commission wants greater co-operation in the area of justice and home affairs, including a common asylum and immigration policy, and the introduction of a European border guard. More controversially, it wants greater harmonisation in legal affairs and proposes the creation of a European prosecutor.
According to yesterday's Commission submission to the convention: "The Union also needs to take steps to build up a genuine European area of justice, based on civil and criminal judicial co-operation, which would in the future be within a single institutional and legal framework. We also clearly need to supplement the current treaty provisions on the protection of the community's financial interests by a legal basis providing for a European prosecutor and facilitating the adoption of rules on criminal proceedings in cases of cross-border fraud."
Ireland's Commissioner, Mr David Byrne, insists that the Commission is only interested in ending the fragmentation of decision-making within the EU. And he points out that, for smaller member-states, the alternative to a strong Commission is a Europe dominated by large states.
Unlike Ms Banotti, Mr Byrne still believes that a referendum on the Nice Treaty can be won and he is confident that the next campaign will be more dynamic than the last. For him, the key to winning the referendum lies in broadening the agenda by talking about Ireland's overall relationship with Europe, rather than just the details of the treaty. "Being in Europe is good for Ireland and we must emphasise that," Mr Byrne says.
The Government hopes that a declaration at next month's Seville summit in Spain guaranteeing Irish neutrality will help persuade some voters to back the treaty.
The treaty's backers will also insist that, without Nice, EU enlargement will be delayed.
Opinion is divided over whether enlargement is legally possible without Nice, but Mr Byrne is almost certainly right when he says that it would be delayed by a failure to ratify the treaty.
A senior source in one European capital predicted yesterday that if Ireland votes No an emergency meeting of EU leaders would be called two weeks later. One option is to press ahead with inviting 10 candidate countries to join and to include in the accession treaties the reweighting of votes in the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.
Other elements of the treaty, such as the abolition of national vetoes in some policy areas, could be dealt with at the treaty-making summit due to follow the convention, probably in 2004.
Even if this plan stood up to legal scrutiny, there is a strong likelihood that it would be opposed by some member-states who are covertly opposed to enlargement. These states are understood to include France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.
None of these countries wants to oppose enlargement publicly but an Irish rejection of Nice would create an opportunity to postpone the admission of new members until the EU gets its house in order.
If this happens, Ireland is likely to become a scapegoat and our relations with other member-states and with the candidate countries will suffer.
Denis Staunton is Europe Correspondent of The Irish Times