As the freed Liam Lawlor ponders whether to contest the coming general election, Michael O'Regan examines the political prospects of TDs who have run into trouble with their parties.
Liam Lawlor has not ruled out running in the next general election. The Dublin West TD told The Irish Times recently that he would decide in mid-February if he would seek a seat in the new Dublin Mid West constituency. "If I do, I will stand as an Independent Fianna Fáil candidate."
Mr Lawlor is no longer a member of Fianna Fáil, having resigned when it became clear that he would be expelled for failing to co-operate with an internal party inquiry.
The constituency revisions mean that Dublin Mid West would be the obvious one for Mr Lawlor to contest, if he attempts to retain his seat, but he would face an uphill battle in a crowded field which includes some high-profile candidates.
Although he has shown himself to be a political survivor in the past, it would require something of a political miracle for him to return to the Dáil. Mary Harney is moving to Dublin Mid West from Dublin South West, while Fianna Fáil is fielding two candidates, John Curran and Des Kelly. Fine Gael is running the outgoing Dublin West TD, Austin Currie and Senator Therese Ridge.
The other candidates are Joanna Tuffy (Labour), Paul Gogarty (Green Party) and Andrew McGuinness, (Workers' Party).
Mayo TD Beverley Cooper-Flynn, had already been chosen as a Fianna Fáil candidate to contest the next election when she was expelled from the parliamentary party last April following a High Court jury's finding that she had encouraged or advised people to evade tax when she worked with National Irish Bank.
Ms Cooper-Flynn is awaiting the hearing of an appeal to the Supreme Court. Asked to comment on her position, a Fianna Fáil spokesman said: "Beverley Cooper-Flynn is a Fianna Fáil candidate, as of the minute."
Daughter of former TD, minister and European Commissioner Pádraig Flynn, she performed well in the last election, polling 8,353 first preferences in a constituency which saw Fianna Fáil lose a seat. Mayo was a five-seater for the first time in the last election, instead of two three-seaters. Fine Gael did well to retain its three seats, held by Michael Ring, Jim Higgins and Enda Kenny, with Dr Tom Moffatt taking the second FF seat.
Fianna Fáil's 43 per cent of the vote was down 7.3 percentage points, its worst performance since 1961 and, at best, it can only hope to retain its two seats at the next election, even if there is a change in personnel.
The party will face a bizarre situation if Ms Cooper-Flynn remains a Fianna Fáil candidate but outside the parliamentary party when the election is called. If she remains on the ticket, she will not be easily dislodged, given her performance last time and the Flynn political tradition in Mayo.
A Fianna Fáil TD for Sligo-Leitrim, John Ellis, resigned as chairman of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine in November 1999, following Fine Gael pressure over money owed to western farmers after the collapse of his meat company in the late 1980s. Fianna Fáil has two seats in the five-seater constituency - Leitrim-based Mr Ellis and Sligo-based Mattie Brennan.
With Mr Brennan retiring, one of the Fianna Fáil seats is under threat from Independent Marian Harkin, according to a recent TG4 poll.
However, Mr Ellis has a strong base in Leitrim, topping the poll in 1997 with 7,051 votes, taking 92.6 per cent of the Fianna Fáil vote in his home county, and must be a strong bet to retain his seat. The other two seats are held by Fine Gael's John Perry and Gerry Reynolds.
Kerry North TD Denis Foley, resigned from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party in 2000 when it was revealed that he was the holder of an Ansbacher account. He is retiring at the next election; the family's ambitions to continue the dynasty received a setback when his daughter, Norma Foley, failed to get a nomination. Fianna Fáil's two candidates are Senator Dan Kiely and Tom McEllistrim.
The two outgoing TDs for the constituency, Labour's Dick Spring and Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan, seem secure, and there is likely to be a bitter battle for the third seat between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin's Martin Ferris. In the last election, Mr Ferris outpolled Mr Foley in first preferences as the Fianna Fáil vote fell to 26.31 per cent, a decline of 10.2 percentage points on 1992. As of now, Mr Ferris remains the favourite to take Mr Foley's vacated seat.
Cork East Fianna Fáil TD Ned O'Keeffe resigned as Minister of State for agriculture last February following a decision by the Public Offices Commission to investigate whether he breached the Ethics in Public Office Act relating to the non-disclosure of his family farm's licence to feed meat and bonemeal to pigs.
Regarded as a hard-working junior minister and an assiduous constituency worker, Mr O'Keeffe seems set to retain his seat, perhaps heading the poll as he did, with 8,737 votes, in 1997. The other seats are held by his party colleague Michael Ahern and Fine Gael's Paul Bradford and David Stanton. Labour will launch a strong challenge for a seat with two candidates, former TDs John Mulvihill and Joe Sherlock, but it will not be at Mr O'Keeffe's expense.
Another certainty to retain his seat is the Independent TD for Tipperary North, Michael Lowry, who has been embroiled in controversy since his resignation from the then Rainbow cabinet in 1996, after it emerged that Ben Dunne had paid for the renovation of his Tipperary home. Although he has kept a low-profile in the Dáil, he has been hitting the headlines as a witness at the Moriarty tribunal.
However, if the 1999 local elections are anything to go by, Mr Lowry's star remains high in his constituency. He secured 2.5 quotas in the Thurles electoral area, an indication that his poll-topping performance in the 1997 election was no fluke.
The other seats in the constituency are held by Fianna Fáil TDs, the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, and Michael O'Kennedy, who is retiring. Máire Hoctor is replacing Mr O'Kennedy as the second FF candidate, while Mr Noel Coonan of Fine Gael, Senator Kathleen O'Meara, Labour, and Bill Dwan, PDs, will also be challenging. Realistically, it is the second Fianna Fáil seat rather than Mr Lowry's, which could be on the line.
There will be considerable interest in Dublin North, once the stronghold of Ray Burke, who was an early casualty in the 1997 election. He resigned as local Fianna Fáil TD and Minister for Foreign Affairs, amid a controversy about donations he received, and he has played no active part in politics in recent years. He has been a witness at the Moriarty tribunal.
Fianna Fáil has yet to choose its Dublin North candidates. An obvious first choice would be its outgoing TD, G.V. Wright, with Senator Jim Glennon a strong favourite to be his running mate. But winning back the Fianna Fáil seat taken by Labour's Seán Ryan in the by-election caused by Mr Burke's resignation, will not be easy. Mr Ryan has re-established his base, while the other TDs for the constituency, Fine Gael's Ms Nora Owen and the leader of the Green Party, Mr Trevor Sargent, will not be easily dislodged. Mr Burke's seat seems lost to Fianna Fáil, at least at the next election.
Michael O'Regan is Parliamentary Reporter of The Irish Times