Taoiseach is still struggling to get out from under the cloud that has dogged his campaign, writes Stephen Collins
Fianna Fáil has had a nightmare start to the election and if yesterday's manifesto launch does not finally drag it on to the right track, the campaign will be in real trouble. The positive side of yesterday's launch was that Taoiseach Bertie Ahern kept his composure through a gruelling set of questions about his personal finances and managed to get some media focus on elements of the manifesto.
However, the fact that so much time was taken up with the payments issue meant that Ahern was still struggling to get out from under the cloud that has dogged his campaign since he went to Áras an Uachtaráin early last Sunday morning. The tribunal issue will be there in the background for the whole campaign no matter how hard Fianna Fáil tries to focus on the policy issues.
Ahern did give a bit more detail about the background to the payments by Manchester-based businessman Michael Wall which, he said, were designed to pay for the refurbishment of the house he subsequently rented and then bought. His bottom line was that the matter was a business arrangement involving his former partner Celia Larkin and Wall, and had nothing to do with him.
The explanation was certainly good enough for the Fianna Fáil supporters who packed the Round Room of the Mansion House, in Dublin, and applauded their leader strongly when he gave his responses. It was an unusual manifesto launch in that it was part press conference and part party rally but the presence of the Fianna Fáil supporters certainly appeared to have a reassuring effect on the Taoiseach.
Whether the voters will be happy to accept the Taoiseach's story may be another matter. Last October he managed to win over public opinion with a television interview in which he effectively threw himself at the mercy of the electorate. The explanation he gave yesterday will probably be enough to reassure the solid Fianna Fáil support base but he needs to win over the floating voters as well.
The party strategists who were at yesterday's event felt the tough questioning might generate public sympathy for the Taoiseach by fuelling the impression that he was being hounded by a media pack. However, the old adage that "when you're explaining, you're losing" is probably closer to the mark. The Taoiseach has to break out of the loop of issues relating to his financial affairs but that will be difficult in an election campaign, when he is relying on the media to try and get his message across to the voters day in, day out.
As to the manifesto itself, the focus was mostly on one issue, stamp duty. That was because almost all the major election promises had already been announced in the Taoiseach's ardfheis speech. As expected, the manifesto contained a commitment to abolish stamp duty for first-time house buyers but the unexpected element was that the concession will be backdated to April 30th.
There was also a commitment to increase mortgage interest relief for first-time buyers to €20,000 for a married couple and half that for a single person. The real surprise, though, was that this concession has been backdated for seven years, which means that anybody who bought a house over that period will stand to net a tidy lump sum if Fianna Fáil returns to power. The concession is clearly designed to appeal to a wide swathe of people who have bought a house in recent years. It is clever in that it promises an incentive for people who have already been in the property market, by comparison with the Fine Gael and Labour plan which will appeal to people who might buy or move house at some time in the future.
The Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, were completely unabashed about making such a dramatic U-turn on stamp duty, in spite of earlier denunciations of the Opposition for promising stamp duty reform. The line was simple. What Fianna Fáil is now offering is in the interests of the consumer and is designed to bring stability into the housing market. By contrast the Opposition plans are ill thought out and would damage the property market.
This line went down well with the faithful in the Mansion House but whether the electorate will be as easily persuaded is another matter.
There is a clear inducement in the Fianna Fáil plan for anybody who has bought a house in recent years but politically the question is why it should be necessary to backdate mortgage interest relief.
After all, Fianna Fáil has been in power for the past 10 years so if there is something not right or fair about the current mortgage interest relief regime then it is the Government's own fault. Fine Gael's Richard Bruton was also quick to pounce on the fact that there is no provision for the stamp duty changes in this year's budget and the money will have to come out of a contingency fund.
At his press conference, the Taoiseach was also asked about comments made yesterday by the Cork Fianna Fáil backbencher Noel O'Flynn, who had given an interview to RTÉ in which he conceded not only that the party was getting a tough time on the doorsteps but that they deserved it because of problems on issues like the health service. The Taoiseach handled this issue with good humour and political dexterity by remarking that Mr O'Flynn had always been able to generate publicity for himself.
"Noel was always a good one to catch publicity. I wish him well down there. I wish Billy well, as well," he said, to knowing applause from party supporters who appreciated the way Mr Ahern had been able to turn the question into a little plug for the loyal Billy Kelleher.
It was clear that Mr Ahern hasn't lost his political touch but he has a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time in which to do it.