This week will be crucial in the campaign for and against the Nice Treaty. The political parties, major interest groups and various organisations within civil society have formally launched their campaigns in preparation for voting on Saturday, October 19th.
Their respective levels of activity, engagement with the electorate, conviction and passion will make the difference on whether the treaty is accepted or rejected.
For the health of Irish democracy, Ireland's position in the European Union and Europe's political future, it is critically important that the campaigners communicate effectively with the electorate. Raising popular understanding of the issues - and thereby the dismally low 35 per cent turnout in the June 2001 referendum - will depend on this and next week's activity in canvassing, publicity, political argument and communication. According to the recent Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll there has been a welcome improvement this year compared to last in the number of people showing some, or a good, understanding of what is involved. That will need to be sustained and improved in coming days if sufficient voters are to have the confidence to vote in an informed way.
Undoubtedly they will be swayed by issues other than the Nice Treaty. Referendums invariably reflect current levels of trust and confidence in Government and political leadership. Concerns about political corruption following the Flood Tribunal report, cutbacks in State expenditure, or the possible collapse of power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland may all affect the result. The respective campaigns must convince voters whether or not such issues are salient. Voters should be aware they will have ample opportunity to punish the Government for its record in forthcoming local and European elections if that is what they want to do.
The danger in using the Nice referendum to deliver such a verdict is that it could do irreparable damage to Ireland's international influence and economic performance without delivering a political verdict on the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition. This referendum is Ireland's sovereign affair. But it also concerns the future shape of Europe as the continent unites voluntarily under the rule of law for the first time in its long and often violent history. The Nice Treaty represents the political terms on which that enlargement of the EU will happen, according to agreements reached by 27 European governments, including Ireland's.
A second Irish No to Nice would disrupt and delay the extremely tight timetable agreed to enlarge the EU by 10 member-states over the next 14 months. This makes the referendum result a matter of direct concern to hundreds of millions of other Europeans as well as to the Irish electorate. The best course would be to accept the treaty and save up anti-Government feeling, to better effect, for another day.