The Government is emerging from a period when economic decisions were made under the pressure of a major crisis but now, with growth resuming, there is more leeway, both in the timescale for making decisions and the range of choices available. Choices still must be made, however. The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll shows where the voters' priorities lie. When asked what they would judge as the most important factor in deciding who to vote for in a general election, there was a wide spread of opinion. Creating jobs was the issue mentioned by most voters, appropriate for an economy where the unemployment live register still exceeds 10 per cent. In second place came "putting more money in people's pockets", with a strong interest also in lowering taxes, growing the economy and protecting the vulnerable.
Economic growth is, ultimately, about delivering a better standard of living and job creation is a key tool for doing this. With the economy now growing strongly and employment rising, this should play to the advantage of the Government. The strong priority given to job creation also carries a warning for the Coalition. They may have some scope on Budget day next October and the poll shows, not surprisingly, the priority given by voters to having money in their pocket. However if the Government is seen to put the recovery at risk by veering off the course of stabilising the public finances, this would also carry electoral dangers. The Government has said it wants solid and steady growth and needs to be true to its word on Budget day, rather than trying to woo voters through an overly-generous package of giveaways.
Growth has also changed our options in other ways. A few years ago the exchequer was so short of cash that an offer for its stake in Aer Lingus would have been accepted with haste. Now, with significant cash balances and a falling deficit, it can afford to make the decision on other grounds, principally on the future of air connectivity. The Government is correct to give the IAG offer serious consideration. In talks over recent weeks it seems IAG has met a number of the Government’s concerns. However the public has yet to be convinced, with a strong majority opposing the sale of the State’s stake. If the Government does choose to sell, it needs to clearly communicate why it has come to this conclusion.
Part of the difficulty in such communication – and in dealing with wider issues – is the lack of trust between voters and the political system. The poll shows a continued demand for political reform, majority support for a new political party and some interest in the Renua initiative, albeit from a minority of voters. In managing the business of government, growth is helping the coalition, but it has still to persuade many voters that it deserves a second term.