Many of Europe's one billion chicken flock were being locked up yesterday as a precautionary health measure in response to the discovery of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza in northern Germany, Austria and Slovenia and suspected cases in Poland and Denmark. This comes after it was found in Italy, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey and on the strong assumption that it will spread as swans and other wild birds continue their winter migrations. The poultry industry is being severely affected by decreased sales in several countries as a result.
So far, 91 people are estimated to have died from direct contact with birds around the world over the past two years, and nearly double that number have been infected. But as yet there is no sign that the disease has mutated so as to cross-infect humans. If that happened, it would cause a potentially lethal pandemic, since humans have no immunity against the H5 antigen involved. Hence the urgent precautionary actions taken by national health authorities, the meetings of EU committees and the intense surveillance activity by the World Health Organisation, which has primary expertise in this matter.
Experts say it is much more likely than not that cross-infection will occur and the only real question is how long that takes. It will be possible to develop a vaccine only after this happens. Producing a vaccine in sufficient quantities for mass inoculation fast enough to be effective would be a mammoth task and an expensive one. This means that even in developed states like Ireland there would probably be selection and delay in making the vaccine generally available. Less-developed and poorer countries' populations would be far more vulnerable to any pandemic.
All this makes the issue of planning to prevent the disease spreading among Europe's poultry flocks urgent and pressing. There is plenty of experience available from previous outbreaks of animal disease. The methods used can be drastic and immediate, but this can be limited if action is taken pre-emptively and in a well-targeted fashion. The next few months will determine how effective this is. Preparing for a possible human pandemic is much more challenging, given the uncertainties and difficulties involved.
In the Irish case, both tasks will be examined today by the Oireachtas health committee. The Labour Party's proposal that a single unit should co-ordinate the campaign against the disease makes sense. A Cabinet committee is overseeing preparations for a possible human pandemic, including the ordering and stockpiling of medication. That too requires singular and determined planning.