Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair want progress on Northern Ireland, but there is no sign yet of what they plan to do in the event of deadlock, writes Stephen Collins, Political Correspondent
Yesterday's meeting be- tween Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair at Farmleigh was clearly designed to force the pace in the forthcoming political talks on the North but it posed, rather than answered, the big question about what will happen if the political parties again fail to reach agreement on the restoration of the institutions established under the Belfast Agreement.
At their joint press conference after the meeting the Taoiseach and prime minister caused no surprise when they pleaded for real progress by the summer but they raised some eyebrows by giving a strong hint that they will not wait indefinitely for agreement to be reached by consensus.
"The Taoiseach and I are saying that we can't just wait on everyone to make up their minds," said Mr Blair. What exactly they will do in the event of the expected deadlock is the real imponderable.
The two men were accompanied by just one official each for most of their hour-long meeting after a quick lunch at Farmleigh. That indicates that some real decisions were made about how to proceed in the face of all the obstacles confronting them but what those decisions were will only become apparent in the months ahead.
What the governments would like to see happening in an ideal world is that the DUP would respond to the forthcoming report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) in a positive fashion, even if the report contains some negative information about continuing low-level IRA activity. This would tee-up the next IMC report in April as a really important event.
If the April report gave the IRA a totally clean bill of health the governments would like to see the DUP begin direct negotiations with Sinn Féin for the first time. The outcome of those negotiations could then form the basis for the establishment of a power-sharing executive on the basis of real trust.
In parallel, the governments would like to see Sinn Féin confront the issue of policing once and for all. By the summer they would like to see Sinn Féin give full recognition to the PSNI for the first time and join the policing boards. That would clear the way for the devolving of policing powers to a restored Northern executive.
The problem with this scenario is that nobody really believes it is going to happen. All the indications are that the DUP will refuse to engage in direct talks with Sinn Féin, even if the IMC report next week gives the IRA a clean bill of health. As the IMC is expected to come up with something short of that, the DUP will feel fully justified in saying that it will not talk to Sinn Féin until the evidence about the ending of IRA activity is much more clear-cut.
Even if the IMC is able to issue a stronger report in April, the DUP will seek a decontamination period before opening direct talks with Sinn Féin, with the autumn probably being the earliest date. As direct talks between the two parties will only be the first step towards the re-establishment of a power sharing executive, it is very difficult to see agreement on the issue this year.
On the other side of the coin there is as yet no indication that Sinn Féin is prepared to go all the way on policing, although the party's growing desperation to get involved in real political activity at government level would indicate a willingness to jump the fence if the DUP was prepared to make the move on the other side.
In spite of all the hurdles both the Taoiseach and prime minister were adamant yesterday that they wanted the institutions up and running again by the summer. The implication is that they have a plan to cut through the niceties and force the pace if the parties will not get down to business.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern, and the Northern Secretary, Peter Hain, will meet next Wednesday in London to prepare a strategy for the talks and they will begin meeting the parties on an individual basis the following Monday. It should become clearer once that process is under way what the real position of all the parties is.
The publication of the IMC report next week will allow all sides to see in advance of the talks just how important the issue of IRA activity will continue to be. The report is expected to be positive about the commitment of the IRA leadership to the winding up of all operations and if this can be reinforced with a more positive report in April, it could help the talks. However, another IMC report in the autumn will probably be demanded by the DUP before it will move.
In the meantime, the DUP has presented the British government with a 16-page document entitled "Facing Reality" setting out a compromise proposal which would involve the Northern Assembly meeting but not appointing an executive. Sinn Féin and the SDLP have expressed opposition to this and the governments would accept it only if it was clearly a half-way house to the full restoration of the executive.
There have been some strong hints that the DUP will not make any substantial move as long as Tony Blair is prime minister. There is a belief in the DUP that Gordon Brown would be more sympathetic to the party's position and that the departure of Blair's entourage would change the political atmosphere.
The fact that the DUP, with its nine MPs, is now the fourth-largest party at Westminster also gives it leverage with a Labour government increasingly on the back foot on issues like education which have provoked internal revolt. The DUP believes that it is now in a stronger position than ever before to get its way. If Mr Blair and Mr Ahern have a plan to circumvent Dr Paisley's entrenched position it will need to be a good one.