Despite denials that the basic policy has changed, there is little doubt that the British government is conducting a political debate on whether to join the euro as the currency approaches its formal launch on January 1st 2002. The timing of any referendum will largely depend on how the British economy performs over the next year.
In their speeches to the Confederation of British Industry conference the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, and the Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, have insisted that the five economic tests they set out in 1997 must be met. Not much was heard from Mr Brown as the international crisis on terrorism developed; but on Sunday he asserted himself by warning that a "comprehensive and rigorous" review of the economic costs and benefits must be made before any decision to have a referendum.
His tone was notably less committed than Mr Blair's at the Labour Party conference last month, in which the prime minister said the government "should have the courage" to hold a referendum in this parliamentary term if the tests are met. Mr Blair yesterday acknowledged that manufacturers have suffered from the strength of sterling, but said there is no artificial way to bring it down. He said Britain is better placed to weather a recession than other European economies - but that would probably make it more difficult to make a bold move on the euro.
Politics have as much, if not more, to do with this difference of emphasis as economics. Mr Brown's political ambition to succeed Mr Blair as prime minister has become closely bound up with his attitude to the euro, leading to speculation of a trade-off between the two men, perhaps after the next general election. Mr Brown's cooler tone would be explained as insisting on his power of veto over the decision rather than in terms of greater scepticism - although the Treasury itself certainly tends in that direction. Mr Blair is determined to bring Britain into the European mainstream. Euro membership would ensure that and play to Britain's security and economic strengths.
But Mr Blair is notoriously cautious in domestic politics. Public opinion remains doggedly opposed to the euro and unenthusiastic about deeper European integration as a response to the international crisis, according to the latest polls. Mr Blair's activist involvement in it was manifested by Sunday's dinner meeting with selected EU colleagues, which has enraged some of the absent ones. He may find his European policy is increasingly hostage to the success of his Afghan one.