Blair in Brighton; Ahern in Kilkenny. This week saw the two islands' prime ministers battling to turn their parties' standings around. Wounded severely by negative poll results following his government's initial puzzlement at the fuel crisis, Blair went for broke. Ahern was pictured drinking tea.
The contrast between the two leaders' political challenges could hardly be greater. Had Blair the same number of tribunals sitting in judgment on his party's past conduct in government and on local authorities, he would find it impossible to govern. Had Ahern the parliamentary majority British Labour retains, it is doubtful whether he would have been sufficiently out of touch with farmers and hauliers as to lose out so unnecessarily to a man like William Hague. Or be as willing to take personal responsibility for doing so as Blair.
Had Blair to face the inflation levels that Ahern must deal with, the British press and establishment would be baying for his blood. Yet in a curious example of how very different are the political cultures of the two states, Blair is in the bigger trouble. The facts indicate his government has made some inroads into the negative legacies of so many years of Conservative government. But not enough for Labour and floating voters. Ahern and his Government have been at least as out of touch with popular opinion. Not
only in the O'Flaherty affair, for which Fianna Fail was so soundly trounced in the Tipperary South by-election, but in failing to register the public ill-feeling engendered by the ILDA dispute, the Eircom share prices debacle, rising street violence and racism, as well as sectoral walk-outs on the Partnership principles, Ahern has left himself with less fewer than is wise.
The signs are he is finding it increasingly difficult to govern, given people's increasingly disgruntled responses to the realities of living in this State. Ahern may want to become the Prince of E-Commerce land, but that won't win enough votes to keep his vulnerable backbenchers in their seats. His reply is not to take charge, but to blow sweet kisses towards Ruairi Quinn.
A parallel drawn between the impact of William Hague and that of John Bruton suggests why Ahern can afford to simultaneously appear to take his backbenchers' worries seriously, while continuing to avoid the big issues posed by the work of the tribunals. Blair lampooned Hague for his attempts to demonstrate his rugby union manliness by boasting how he drank a staggering 14 pints. "Anything looks possible after 14 pints," Blair jeered.
Hague may be short-term leader but his party is serious about taking power. No such ambition is communicated from Fine Gael headquarters, with the party seemingly gridlocked by it's leader's overwhelming desire to retain his own power.
FINE GAEL has failed to act at a time when by other national political standards the Government was never more susceptible to attack. Even if the interventions of such as Michael Noonan have inflicted some wounds on Ahern's Government, they have not been mortal. Nor is public disaffection translating into Fine Gael support, as it should do.
Yet Ahern must fear a turnaround in Fine Gael's fortunes. Not only did he air-kiss Ruairi Quinn, he has led his TDs to believe Fine Gael was endemically incapable of offering Labour as compatible a partner as Fianna Fail. What he failed to mention was Fianna Fail is now the party of the economic right, not Fine Gael. Although Labour traditionally sponsors left-leaning economic policies, Ruairi Quinn's stewardship of the Finance portfolio was not notably radical from an old Labour perspective.
Perhaps Ahern was canvassing for a new finance minister.
The great unmentionable in Brighton, meanwhile, was the potential loss of floating voters after Mo Mowlam's withdrawal from parliament. The great unmentionable in Kilkenny was what would happen to the Progressive Democrats when this Government ends. Implicit in Ahern's reported words was the judgment that the PDs do not offer sufficient voter support to yield him the majority coalition he wants. Almost as noteworthy was the assessment that Sinn Fein will not do so either.
An opposition led by Fine Gael under John Bruton, the PDs under Mary Harney and whatever combination of Sinn Fein happens to work out on election day would give Ahern no cause for alarm. The taming of Mary Harney to Ahern's political agendas is now such that her potential to damage a future government is low. Having been implicated directly in issues such as the O'Flaherty affair, her credibility in mounting moral campaigns would be lacking.
Sinn Fein's island-based agenda, added to its longer-term potential, hardly makes it dangerous opposition fodder either. If the party continues its rate of vote increase at the next election, the threat it will pose will be to Labour.
Should Labour gain in the short term by having and taking the opportunity to exercise power, it could ultimately weaken their working-class vote when it comes to contesting future seats with Sinn Fein.
The great imponderable is that of the independent deputies who may be returned to the next Dail. Ahern has managed to play all four against the middle so far by setting up committees to circumnavigate their concerns. If he decides to play for their future support by promoting a last-minute abortion referendum, the only serious threat can come from Labour, which alone wants legislation on the matter.
Fine Gael's decision to follow its leader's personal predilections on the subject, rather than target a younger vote, may have effectively emasculated them on the one issue that could yield dividends in the future. Having lost both the liberal and younger votes, the future for Fine Gael may be bleak.
mruane@irish-times.ie