Following Mr Tony Blair's formal declaration yesterday that the UK general election will be held on May 5th, parties in Britain and the North begin an intense campaign which will continue for the next four weeks.
Mr Blair remains a favourite to gain an unprecedented third term as a Labour prime minister. But opinion polls show it could be a close contest, much of which will hinge on whether Labour's core voters turn out on election day. If they don't, or if there is significant tactical voting by Labour dissidents for the Liberal Democrats, it is quite possible that the Conservatives could win. In the North, a no-holds-barred campaign is in prospect, as Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party fight to displace the Social Democratic and Labour Party and the Ulster Unionists in Westminster as leaders of their respective communities.
Turnout is a critical issue. There is a pervasive sense of weary cynicism about politics in Britain, which is hard to square with Mr Blair's confident assertion yesterday that the country's sound economic prospects and his government's guardianship of public services will assure his party another victory. Despite eight years of genuine achievements in these areas, together with unprecedented constitutional change in Scotland, Wales and the North, the Labour Party has failed to rejuvenate political involvement, engagement and citizenship. This is partly because political power has been centralised to an unheard of degree in Mr Blair's government, atrophying collective cabinet rule and bolstering his own personalised role. The Iraq war reinforced these trends and contributed to a deepening cynicism about New Labour's politics.
Mr Blair will have himself to blame if these trends rebound on him. A defeat would be sensational and is, in truth, unlikely unless dramatic events intervene. While the Conservatives fare well on law and order, education and immigration issues, they are unlikely to be able to keep such a narrow agenda at centre stage for the rest of the campaign. Labour's strong socio-economic record will tell. A narrow victory would undermine Mr Blair's authority and hasten a leadership challenge early in the next parliament. A better performance would allow a mid-term transition to a new Labour leadership.
In the North, a great deal is at stake. Following the collapse last December of the negotiations to restore power-sharing, all the parties have set out to justify their positions in this Westminster contest and in the local elections accompanying it. Whereas the UUP won six seats in the 2001 election, none of them is certain to survive DUP competition on this occasion. A sure victim of defeat would be Mr David Trimble's leadership of the UUP. The same applies to the three seats held by the SDLP. Will the Sinn Féin vote be affected by the Northern Bank robbery and the murder of Robert McCartney? It will be a bitter, raucous but potentially ground-breaking battle.