Labour's landslide victory in the 1997 British general election gave its leader, Mr Tony Blair, a remarkably predominant position in the government, his party and the country at large. Until this year he seemed invulnerable to political attack and capable of commanding continuing support by virtue of his very success. The real significance of his misjudged speech to the Women's Institute annual conference in London on Wednesday, where he was heckled and jeered for being too party political, is that this predominance is coming to an end.
It was regarded as an important speech by Mr Blair, marking his return to the political fray after paternity leave. It provided an opportunity to address his favourite theme of combining traditional values with new methods of delivering them, to an electorally strategic audience representing the heart of Middle England. Mr Blair was anxious to re-balance the sharp exchanges about equal educational opportunity at Oxford led by the Chancellor, Mr Gordon Brown, made while he was on leave, and which he clearly believed to give the wrong political message about Labour's emphasis on class differentials. In the event the speech attempted too much, especially in its listing out of Labour efforts to extend opportunity. It has been aptly criticised for steering a bland middle way between alternative approaches to achieving that goal - leaving nobody satisfied.
The next six months will be a real test for Mr Blair. His leadership style has been defined by successful orchestration of achievements in domestic, constitutional and international policy with a carefully pitched message combining continuity and change. There was sufficient openness to political innovation after 18 years of Conservative rule to give Labour a real boost beyond the ordinary in its first 30 months in office. Over the last six months that extended honeymoon has come to an end - indelibly symbolised now by the hostile reception Mr Blair received from an admittedly small number of delegates. It is back to normal politics in his encounters with the Conservative opposition - and with opponents in his own party.
Adjusting to these different realities will be difficult for a prime minister whose political success has enabled him to concentrate a great deal of control in his office and to dominate the presentation of government and party policy. He will need to develop a more collegial approach. He will also need to become more daring in his choices, less cautious about offending particular constituencies, if he is to carry conviction as a political leader capable of carrying old and new supporters with him and his project of modernised social democracy.
Electoral politics is back in earnest, as Britain prepares for the next general election, whether in the early summer or autumn of next year. To galvanise traditional Labour voters Mr Blair needs above all to convince them there is a real possibility of a Conservative revival and that the delivery of reforms by his government justifies their active support. Mr Blair's style has combined political caution with rhetorical radicalism, notably with regard to the crucial issue of whether the United Kingdom should join the euro. On that issue too he will need to demonstrate leadership if he is not to lose the initiative to an increasingly confident Conservative opposition.