After five years of unchallenged hegemony over the British Labour Party as prime minister, Mr Tony Blair is now encountering substantial domestic political difficulties for the first time in office.
Dissatisfaction with his presidential style of leadership, Third Way policies and willingness to back the United States in attacking Iraq has surfaced within the Labour Party. This coincides with a revival in the opposition Conservatives, as their new leader changes its course. Opinion polls register a fall in Mr Blair's popularity and credibility - a definite sign of mid-term blues early in his second term.
Mr Blair is a formidable politician, as well as a strong leader. His warm tribute to Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother this weekend recalled that to Princess Diana following her death in September 1997, when he caught the British national mood precisely. Thus he is well able to retrieve his position. But that will require changing his approach to ministerial colleagues and the parliamentary party, both of which find him too remote and unaccountable as a leader.
Significantly, this feeling is expressed not only by his critics on the left of the party, but by many in the centre ground he claims as his own. The Third Way approach has failed to deliver promised efficiencies, and there is mounting concern that Labour's traditional emphasis on equality of access has lost its momentum. Mr Gordon Brown's next budget is expected to increase taxation so as to pay for better schools and hospitals. The Conservatives have decided to discard their tax cutting approach in an effort to reposition themselves politically to take advantage of Labour's difficulties.
Mr Blair's strong support for the US on Iraq has crystallised much of the party disquiet with his leadership. His critics are not convinced it will give him sufficient influence on the Bush administration to moderate US policy, much less act as a bridge towards European governments more sceptical about attacking Iraq. From the Irish point of view it is to be hoped these problems do not deflect Mr Blair from his objective of bringing Britain to the centre of Europe by joining the euro. This remains his primary international objective, but is is still more promised than achieved.