Mr Tony Blair needed to convince critics in his own party rather than the opposition to support his policy on Iraq when he addressed the House of Commons yesterday. Many of them have opposed it, threatening him with the greatest political challenge he has faced since he became prime minister.
They reflect a deep sense of disquiet in the country as a whole, which has shown up in successive opinion polls as well as in public demonstrations.
Mr Blair's performance yesterday was more notable for the way he engaged with his critics in question time than for anything new he said in his presentation of the hard line Britain is following along with the United States. He has regained political credibility, but the real test of that will come in today's Commons vote on the government's policy.
Mr Blair's presentation of his case was forthright and strong. He said the time has come to give a final warning to Iraq about the need to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction. He dismissed the alternative plan for more intrusive arms inspections put forward by France and Germany, saying the United Nations faces a grave choice between enforcing its authority and seeing it disintegrate in greater bloodshed if it does not impose its will on Iraq. He explained that this resolution will not be put to a vote immediately, but must await outstanding reports from the arms inspectors. That gives the UN process three weeks or so before final decisions are made about peace or war.
Mr Blair badly needs the political cover of another UN resolution if he is to maintain his political leadership at home and abroad. By co-operating so closely with President Bush he has exposed himself to depend on the US leader should Mr Bush decide to go it alone if another resolution authorising the use of force is not passed by the Security Council. There is a very thin line, however, between saying the UN must follow the US-British position if it is to retain credibility, and allowing Iraq a final chance to comply. By demanding 100 per cent compliance Mr Blair seems to be ruling out significant progress short of that.
Interpretation of any Iraqi co-operation will continue to divide the respective US-British and Franco-German approaches to the crisis if there is such movement this week, as the inspectors hinted yesterday there could be. Much will depend on whether Saddam Hussein sticks to his refusal to destroy any of the contentious Al-Samoud 2 missiles.
Mr Blair's success as prime minister owes much to his ability to command support in his Labour Party and appeal beyond it to the middle ground of British public opinion. We have seen many of the resulting benefits in the Northern Ireland peace process, which is once again at a decisive stage. The next few weeks will test his leadership to the limits.